|
|
 |
Betfair Picks - European Tour |
|
|
10-1; -10.56pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Brandon Stone 170 69th
Lucas Bjerregaard 100 32th
Thomas Pieters 29 34th
Stone had a purple patch of form in late 2015/early 2016 in South Africa, but a repeat looks very unlikely even though the Tour is back in this country - in his last five starts, he has finished 68th-mc-mc-mc-52nd
Bjeeregaard is in better form, but he has still only had one top-10 finish this year (China Open in May) and he has yet to win on either the Challenge Tour or the Main Tour, so I can't see him as a likely challenger to Stenson who dominates this market
Pieters has the power off the tee to play well here, but like the other selections, he is making his debut in this event and his recent form has been some way from his previous level, so these look rather short odds unlike Stenson struggles on this course which he has never done in any of his previous six visits Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Henrik Stenson 20 8th
Victor Dubuisson 340 3rd
George Coetzee 12.5 25th
Ricardo Gouveia 410 3rd
Chris Wood 9.6 25th
Richard Sterne 370 20th
The odds on Stenson to win are far too short considering that he is seven shots behind Noren who won has won European Tour events in each of the last two months
Dubuisson is a shot further back and at much larger odds, but his last six finishes read 66th-mc-mc-wd-wd-47th, so it is no surprise that he dropped well down the leaderboard today after a good opening round
Coetzee is in 2nd place, two shots behind Noren, but this is his 10th event in 11 weeks and fatigue may well be a factor over the weekend, particularly on a course on which he has yet to finish in the top-10 in four attempts
Gouveia may only be six shots off the lead, but he is still not yet into the top-60 in the predicted Race to Dubai standings, which shows the different in class between him and some of the other players at the top of this leaderboard
Even though Wood played in the Ryder Cup, it has been five months since he recorded a top-10 finish so I would make him a couple of points higher in this market even though he lies 2nd with four other players
Sterne is with Dubuisson outside the top-20 and with poor ball-striking stats this week; he can be opposed even at these odds Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Andy Sullivan 7.4 3rd
Alex Noren 26 1st
Wang may find it difficult to follow up today's 64, but there is also home-player (and leader in greens in regulation this week) Oosthuizen ahead of Sullivan as he tries to close the four-shot gap to the top of the leaderboard, so I would make Sullivan three points higher than these odds
Noren had both an ugly start (double-bogey on the 3rd) and an ugly finish (three bogeys in the last six) to his round today and he is now six shots off the pace; it will take a really impressive round tomorrow to overcome today's problem and challenge for this title again
|
