Russian Open

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1-2; -2.64pts  (system plays: 3-5-0) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Matthew Nixon to beat Craig Lee -125 @ Bet365  WON by 3
Straightforward pick in terms of current and course form. Lee did secure a top-20 finish in the Open Championship last week, but Nixon has finished ahead of him in the other four of their last five common events and a let-down is likely after such a career week from Lee. The other factor in Nixon's favour is that he finished 2nd on this course last year whereas Lee missed the cut.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Korhonen tb Elvira -155 (L); Morrison tb Pieters -120 (L); Morrison tb Dredge -125 (L); Nixon tb Finch -119 (W)] 

Round 2 play (2pts):

Alastair Forsyth to beat Kevin Phelan +111 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  TIED
Easy to oppose a player who is in the top-15 after rd1, but has four missed cuts and a best finish of 72nd in his last five starts and has never secured a top-30 finish on Tour outside South Africa. Forsyth played well last time out in the Scottish Open and should be able to take advantage of any wobble by Phelan tomorrow.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Maximilian Kieffer to beat Sam Hutsby -132 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 3

Round 4 play (2pts):

Matthew Nixon to beat Rikard Karlberg +115 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
Both had been in good positions after rd1 and then shot 76-74 to tumble down the leaderboard, but Nixon still looks the more likely to bounce back tomorrow: he has two top-15 finishes in his last four starts whereas Karlberg had missed the last six weeks on Tour and Nixon did finish 2nd here last year. All in all, I don't see him being the underdog in this matchup.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Kakko tb Gee -115 (L); Drysdale tb Dredge +100 (W); Baek tb Porteous -106 (L); McGrane tb Hutsby -111 (W)]