Challengers Group Index (50-30-20-10) at Sporting Index
Buy Ernie Els at 13 for 0.4pts
* Flew under the radar at the end of last year but still had some decent finishes including an 11th at the WGC event in China
* Disappointing in Qatar last year (after 4 seasons away), but he does have form here with finishes of 1-13-3 from 2005-07
* Using a pure numbers approach, I would value Els nearer to 15 in this company

R1 (10+3s) at Sporting Index
Sell Edoardo Molinari / Damien McGrane at 2 for 0.2pts
* Both players had a fairly mediocre 2013 and have only modest form at the course
* The head-to-head tells a different story - McGrane won the 2013 tournament H2H 9-5-0 and the R1s 10-3-2
* Based on my models, there is nothing to split Molinari and McGrane in this market

Post-Cut Finishing Positions at Spreadex
Sell Emiliano Grillo at 48 for 0.3pts
* Grillo is currently tied-57th and this quote is almost exactly where it was pre-event
* In the last 13 events where he has been outside the T40 but made the cut after R2, he has improved his position each time
* During these events, his average position after R2 has been 52.2 while his average position after R4 has been 28.7
* Based on my models, this quote should be three or four points lower

1-2-0  -3.00