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Branden Grace - Back 2 points @ 23 (Betfair) Branden Grace - Lay (keep-in-play) 4 points @ 8 (Betfair) Add Paul Lawrie - Lay (keep-in-play) 10 points @ 2.5 (Betfair) (Already running for 62 points profit) No apology for getting involved yet again. With Rafa Cabrera-Bello again showing a form of defence of his lead rather than attack, cases can now be made for at least ten players to nab the strange but stunning trophy. Tomorrow's final two-ball does look set for carnage with both having a history of shooting low from off the pace. Of course, they may well be in that position come their off time with 14 players within 3 shots and another 5 just a shot further back. That would suit both of these players but I'd have the finger on the lay button if they have the lead early in their rounds. Again, it is a price thing and with winners and competent rookies around, the price of 5-2 about the Spaniard is laughable, whilst the best price 7-2 doesn't look that appealing given the way Rafa was short with a lot of his putts today. You can't help but be a fan of the personable Webster but that don't pay the bills. He hasn't slept on a lead for a few years and when he does lead through a final round, as in South Africa a couple of seasons ago, he invariably finds a way to get beaten. Leave them alone and if they drift to silly prices, either may be worth a sheckle or two on the machine, but that's about all. Talking of silly prices, the likes of Sergio Garcia, George Coetzee and Branden Grace all drifted badly on Betfair halfway through today. No surprise as they all made horrendous mistakes to fall half-a-dozen shots off the pace with the leaders having holes in hand. However, from prices as high as mid-30s and 40s, they now trade at 14, 14 and 21. Sergio was doing precisely nothing until his eagle on 10 to take him to 9-under, Coetzee had a mare early on whilst Grace's only real problem was a triple-bogey on the par-5 9th. Yet all now have major chances to win. With Coetzee yet to get his head in front I favour the other two and purely on price have to be with the South African. Both players had a chance to win last year but whilst Garcia's 65 beat the Grace 71 by a mile, there is just the feeling that he isn't quite there yet and the bigger price has to be the call. Grace has been almost ever-present in this column over the last few weeks but rightly so. He is back in top form after a season of average results, should have won the Volvo Champions and plays this course in fine fashion (5th after round 3 last season). He will not believe that despite that error he is only three shots off the pace and looks one of a few that could turn it on early and disrupt any party up ahead. We already have live runners in Paul Lawrie and Johan Carlsson. Lawrie is doing what Lawrie does. It isn't spectacular but he has hit 14/17/16 greens in reg so far this week and a repeat of that will see him going forwards tomorrow. Should the putter warm up a bit more, he has the experience and course knowledge to know when to attack and when to hold back. He is currently running at a 2point profit and for a 62 points bonus should he win and, at this stage, I'm happy to put in a lay at a very short price should he go on a birdie run, ensuring a few points in the bag. Carlsson is a completely different player. His inexperience showed mostly on the final hole today when trying an ambitious fairway metal from 290. He looked slightly fractious over the ball and pulled it into the water. The par-save putt was a thing of beauty however and confirmed his talent. He rescued himself today and I doubt he will try that final approach again when in contention and that could be the making of him. The Swede traded at single figures today so a profit could have been made already but I am happy to sit and watch him for the moment. He does look a sink-or-swim character but with a record of mid 60 final rounds, he could very well shock a few. Of course, the likes of Olesen and Illonen could come through but I remain to be convinced by the Olesen revival and Illonen finished badly today. Take Grace as the final piece and trust we will have three live runners come the turn tomorrow. Already advised Stephen Gallacher - Back 2 points @ 60 (Betfair) Stephen gallacher - Lay (keep-in-play) 4 points @ 20 (betfair) After two exceptional rounds of golf, Rafa Cabrera-Bello takes a two shot lead into the 'weekend'. Given his play thus far, 91% of greens in regulation and ranking 3rd in putting, it is churlish to dismiss the Spaniard's claims of victory and he confirmed that he feels comfortable around this course and is looking forward to the next two rounds. No surprise as he is hitting long drives to the middle of fairways and getting the wedges to ten feet and, as such, his lead is two from maiden George Coetzee and three over the likes of maidens Matt Baldwin and Johan Carlsson. However, a word of warning to those wanting to take the 5-2. Well, several. Doha has one main defence, the wind, and when it blows at no more than a zephyr as it has done so far this week, low scores are commonplace. The wide fairways give a chance to open up from the tee and have short irons into large greens that have been watered overnight and are more receptive than should be the case. Of course, this opens up the event to anyone capable of a 64 or 65 and given that Friday is now 'Moving Day', expect to see birdies and eagles aplenty as they shorten the holes and allow players to attack. Rafa could be under pressure to keep his lead far earlier than would normally be the case, and despite his obvious class, has still to convince in front. In nine events where Rafa has been in the first two after halfway, he has finished an average of 8th after the third, and 10th after the final round. Granted a few were in the infancy of his career on the Challenge Tour and the stats also include leading at Bridgestone, but nevertheless it is a worrying statistic. Indeed, the most poignant one may be from just a week ago when he joint-led at Abu before falling away with a third round 73. Whatever his claims, given the potential for someone to shoot 12-under over the final couple of rounds, he has to be avoided at the price. Price is everything. Just behind the leader George Coetzee is walking round Doha like he owns the place and it is performances like this that make you wonder how he is still a maiden. Yes, he is too good to remain so for long but it's there in black-and-white. Whilst the South African has won a few on his home Tour, his record on the main Tour is shocking, falling away over the weekend as if stopped. Clearly, Coetzee has the game to win plenty of events but his official stats this week pale into insignificance compared with that of tomorrows playing partner. Given his closing 65 here last year and his obvious liking for the course, last weeks eye-catching top-5 made him an obvious pick at 30-1 pre-event. However, despite this he was shunned by many due to his win record and he simply can't be advised at a best of 13-2. Choosing between the possible closers is very tough. We already have rookie Carlsson in the book and he produced a tremendous finish today to make the three-figure price look a thing of the past. He is all-out attack though and whilst extremely happy with the bet, he is still very much a 'watch' in contention. Conditions will certainly suit his style tomorrow and whilst laying our stake back at around 21 is a possible, we simply have no idea how he will react in the mix; just enjoy! Sergio Garcia plays this course like a dream and his record here is impressive, with four top-10s before last years closing 2nd, but he looks too out-of-sorts to make up the seven shots he needs, whilst in-form (or was in-form) Henrik Stenson also looks to have too much to do - of the two the latter looks to have better claims given he is finding the short stuff but not holing putts, but it will be a long time before he convinces me he is the best player in the world at any point so he'll remain unbacked. The Links/Portugal/Doha connections have been written about elsewhere and the second advice (as posted earlier today) on Paul Lawrie is a confident one. I would have liked to play him each-way as he never gives up at any point and will be very keen to keep playing shots with his new clubs, but the 70 on Betfair was far too hard to resist. When Lawrie has won here in Doha, he has gone on to win at a Links venue later that year and he is simply playing better than his score thus far. Given we are opposing the front couple, it was tough picking between the likes of proven winners Mikko Illonen, Tom Lewis, Branden Grace et al, whilst the likes of Alejandro Canizares and Romain Wattel may be maidens on the main Tour (I love the Russian Open, but really....) but they attack anything and could easily go silly low over the next few days. Proven multiple winner Branden Grace is probably the most convincing of those mentioned and he has been another South African eye-catcher this year having just missed out in the Volvo Champions (thought too much about a missed chance during his final round) whilst improving from 47th to 6th round this course over the last couple of seasons. Grace has a game similar to Coetzee in that it looks very simple for him at times, and at just 5 off the lead and 3 off 2nd, he does look almost certain to have a run at things. Grace is reluctantly left out though in favour of another excellent Links exponent Stephen Gallacher as a price of 60 on Betfair gives ample opportunity for a profit with any decent move up the board. Always a fan of the Scot, he still worries me when in contention and time and time again he has flattered, making birdie runs before realising he is near the front. We shouldn't have that problem this time and, like the Lawrie bet, he can be laid back at any point around 20 to ensure a profit and a freebie with any luck. In truth, cases can be made for a good 12 or so players and it is hoped that they tighten up the pins or allow the greens to dry out in readiness for Payda but for now, these two experienced winners look excellent value against the field and make a decent team along with the gung-ho Carlsson. There may be plays again after round three but for now, enjoy. Paul Lawrie - Back 2 points @ 70 (Betfair) Paul Lawrie - Lay (keep-in-play) 4 points @ 20 (Betfair) A very quick i-r advice before the article tonight. Paul Lawrie feels he is playing better than his score this week, and even looked better than his first round 67. The Scot openly tells how impressed he is with his new irons, and with he and his caddy discussing the winning shots from their victories here in 1999 and 2012, he can make enough of a charge to make a profit and leave a freebie somewhere along Moving Day. The price compares extremely well with the best of 40-1 on the books. Johan Carlsson - 0.5 points e/w 100-1 (Ladbrokes, Hills, SpreadEx) Wouldn't usually advise in-running earlier than halfway but Carlsson looks huge at the price, especially compared with the current Betfair price of 80. His case is covered in the matchup section, and whilst he couldn't buy a putt for his first 9 holes today, that eagle on 18 will give him huge confidence going into an early tee time on Thursday. His win at Kazakhstan was by seven shots and whilst this is clearly a number of levels higher, the 7th in the SA Open plus last weeks closing 7th in Abu shows he can compete in this class. Incredibly, the Swede hasn't shot worse than 69 in his last nine Sundays so he clearly competes till the end, whilst last Sunday's best-of-the-round 65 gives further credence to the belief he will win sooner than later. Carlsson has the game to go very low over the next few days and as one to be interested in for the entire season, take advantage of the three-figures now.
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