Nordea Masters

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Alvaro Quiros to beat Gregory Bourdy - 6 points @ 10-11 (Betfred/Tote)

Despite never held a top event, there are enough hints that the PGA National will prove as low-scoring as the three previous events at Bro Hoff Slot. Wide open fairways on a long course with little wind is ripe for the big-hitters to dominate and they don't come much bigger than the Spaniard. A multiple winner on Tour, Quiros has shown plenty this year after injury and looks primed for a good showing where his huge driving and accurate iron play will be too much for his oppo this week. Ignore the Spanish Open and Wentworth for form clues this week. Whilst they may indicate players in form, they were conditions that would have ill-suited Quiros and he is far better judged on his two top-5s and 13th in three of the previous four events, with the best of those a 3rd in China that probably should have been a '1'. Putting has been an issue with Quiros for a while but it is a firm belief that his distance will lead to any amount of eagle and birdie oppertunities and with the weather set fair, he can make a strong challenge for the title.

Bourdy is in fair form with five top-20s and a top-10 in six events from February to April but has gone off the boil since with a m/c in Spain and top-60 last week. In his case, I am not sure those results can be so easily dismissed and he is a better player on tough tracks, such as when winning the French Open last year. Bourdy seems the type to repeat form in the same locations and he has little of that here, with 59th last year at a similar track. He looks unlikely to be able to lie up with the big hitters this week and is easily opposable at an each-of-two.