Alejandro Canizares to beat Berndt Wiesberger - 6 points @ 10-11 (SpreadEx) 

In a weakish field at a new course, it is easy to look beyond the top 12 or so for the outright winner. However, the 72-hole matchups look far simpler with current mini gamble, Canizares, looking far too solid for the Austrian.

Admittedly it took the Spaniard almost 200 events to win again after the 2006 Russian Open, but he could not have captured the Trophee Hassan with much more ease, a first round 62 being the basis of his six shot lead after day three and an eventual five shot victory. After that initial 18 holes, Canizares commented that, "After today the confidence is great but it wasn't there for the last month. After Dubai I started losing a little bit of form but this game is up and down so you can' t expect the best all the time.I was lucky that after a couple of sessions with my coach and a putting session with Phil Kenyon this week it's started getting a lot easier so I am very happy to perform well this week."

It isn't as if his form previous was poor - a 5th in a good quality field in Qatar the best this year, but he ended 2013 with a couple of decent top-18 finishes - but the belief that he could get over the line was waning, two play-off losses in his record the doubt. After the event, the hint was that he still had improvement to make but he 'had won, so who cares?' Tongue in cheek perhaps, but a great attitude for further success.

Neverthless, it was hard not be impressed by the way he handled any wind in Morocco and the stats for driving accuracy, GIR and putting are top grade. Purely from a viewing perspective, he was able to land the ball consistently within 15 feet and thus take out any sharp slopes, an ability that will be crucial this week on huge greens where GIR may be misleading and a 'proximity to the pin' would be of far more help (if we could get it). 

It may be significant that the 31-year-old is showing his best golf at the age that golfers are considered at their peak and as far as this week's test is concerned, he has been playing La Reserva since 2008 often playing with his Ryder Cup father Jose Maria. He not only knows the track but has a serious record in windy conditions with top finishes at Perth, Scottish Open, KLM and also at the Andelucia Masters amongst others. Linksy conditions are no barrier to the selection, his caddy has said that Morocco was easy and they are looking forward to this week, and the only negative would be the mass attention placed upon him this week. Given he handled the pressure of leading wire-to-wire last time out, he seems rock solid and should be outright favourite here this week.

Canizares is put up against both market rivals David Horsey and Berndt Wiesberger this week but the matchup against the latter is far more appealing at the same price.

Wiesberger was opposed in Morocco by Michael Hoey on the basis of unreliability and he proved just the inferior, with the Irishman falling through the pack over the last two rounds after being clear. That shouldn't disguise the Austrian's poor play then or at most events this year and whilst he is happy to be punting all sorts of manufacturers gadgets on his twitter feed, the purchase of Trackman may be his best move yet!

As a multiple winner on Tour, it is churlish to crab his credentials in a weak field but in making him level with the Morocco winner, he is has been far too highly rated at the moment with only a Dubai 9th of any real merit this year. Previous to that, two missed cuts commenced 2014 and since then he has been thrashed in the first round of the matchplay and had that mid-table finish last time out, some 16 shots behind this week's oppo. Wiesberger's putting stinks at the moment and these large greens may not bring him any help with improving those stats, whilst he has no form at all in Spain to speak of. There is a struggle to make a case for him challenging apart from his undoubted ability but hidden as it is for the moment, Canizares perhaps looks far too obvious.