In a weak event, course specialist are always worth looking at more than once and they don't come more 'specialist' than the Welshman.

A winner of the 2003 running here at Santo De Serra, he is equally famous for his third round 60, a round that could have been one shot better but for that missed 7-footer on the 17th.  Okay that is a while ago, but Dredge followed that up with form figures of 14/28/15/15 until illness and injury struck and he went awol for an age, missing the cut here the last twice. To top that, Dredge actually thought about quitting the sport in 2012 but has kept on practising and attempting to get fit and 'right' and results finally showed with a 10th at the NH Open at the beginning of April. Although that itself is a fair effort after a nine-month break from full-time golf, he led at halfway before an awful 4-over start to his third round. The effort could easily have been put down to 'blowing up' but he got his game back together on payday to post a joint second-best round of 66 which must have been an enormous boost. 

Dredge was heavily backed on his next outing at Catalunya and started with a mid-field 70 before a disappointing (again) couple of double bogeys led to a missed-cut. It can be said that it's a quandry as to what to do with him but it is hard to ignore his positive thoughts on this weeks venue and in a matchbet where you need a positive and a negative for a bet, this stands out.

I am actually a fan of Freddie Anderson-Hed but I can't tell you why. His swashbuckling, chuck-it-all-at-the-flag attitude is admirable and he has huge length off the tee which may be an advantage here this week given the last two winners ranked number one for driving distance. However, he hasn't played here since 2008 when he missed the cut and there is nothing in recent form to recommend him with just an 11th at the Nelson Mandela shining against a 63rd and  three missed-cuts, results of his last two outings . If Hed is out of form, he could end up anywhere around this course and given his oppo has so much positivity from the venue, there seems absolutely no reason why Hed will not be soundly beaten.