Italian Open

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2-2; -0.10pts  (system plays: 5-2-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Kristoffer Broberg to beat Eddie Pepperell -110 @ Paddy Power  WON by 1
Two players in good form and absent of Ryder Cup considerations, but I do make Broberg the favourite in this matchup - he is far more consistent than Pepperell who had missed three of his last four cuts before top-5 finishes in his two events and Broberg does have prior course experience have played here last year and made the cut. That consistency see Broberg 24th in the Race to Dubai standings whereas Pepperell is back in 77th place and outside the cut line for the DP World Tour Championship.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Quiros tb Grillo -110 (W); McGrane tb Fichardt -110 (L)] 

Round 2 play (2pts):

Damien McGrane to beat Justin Pieters +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 3
Just one shot separates these two after the first round, but with a 100% record in both scrambling and sand saves, it is evident that Pieters could have scored a much higher score than he did today. With a record of four missed cuts in his last five starts, there is further evidence that his next score may not be sub-par. With six cuts made in a row, including 2nd place in the Russian Open, and a cut made here last year, McGrane looks a far better prospect to move up the leaderboard tomorrow.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Wood tb Aiken +117 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Marc Warren to beat Merrick Bremner -175 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 1
Short odds, but Warren is playing some of the best golf of his career: in his last four starts, he has been leading the Scottish Open after rd2 and rd3 before finishing 3rd, in 12th place with one round to play in the Open Championship before finishing 39th, finishing 15th in the PGA Championship and winning the Made in Denmark. In 23rd place, no-one else in this field can match that form and he should easily beat Bremner who very rarely plays outside South Africa.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Molinari F tb Gallacher -125 (T); Gallacher tb Aguilar -144 (W); Kieffer tb Pieters -125 (W); Bland tb Pieters +102 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

S.S.P. Chowrasia to beat Lee Slattery -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 2
Opposing Slattery who is 4th with one round to play. Currently 131st in the Race to Dubai this is a very good chance to earn his Tour Card for next year, but that puts a lot of pressure on tomorrow's round after a difficult season. However history suggests that he will not play well in this situation - the Madeira Island Open in 2006 was the last time that he shot 70 or better in rd4 when within 5 shots of the leader on the European Tour. Chowrasia was in that position just two weeks ago and retained his top-10 position thoughout rd4.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Wiesberger tb Luiten +110 (L)]