Irish Open

Subscribe

Danny Willett to beat Paul Casey - 5 points @ 6-5 Unibet

Victor Dubuisson to beat Paul Casey - 5 points @ 10-11 Spreadex

Anders Hansen to beat Padraig Harrington - 5 points @ 10-11 Ladbrokes

Two players who I want to be against this week in Paul Casey and Pod. Being against the 3-time Major champ isn't difficult at all these days and he is a far cry from the player that consistently finished top-10 in the rankings through the 00's and winning the Race To Dubai in 2006.

Swing changes, issues of the mind and no doubt other factors have seen him fall to an average finishing position of mid-40s since 2010 on this Tour and recent efforts suggest little will change in the near future. Pod is all over the shop, not finding fairways (and length isn't an excuse either), ranking outside the top-100 for GIR, pretty useless at scambling and dire with the putter. Hmmmm.. Pod doesn't play in Europe very much and even when there is a glimmer of hope, as with the opening 69 at Wentworth, he backs that up with three poor rounds and a mid-60s finish. His PGA form doesn't read that much better, again with the odd okay round but he ranks 181st on the Fedex rankings and has made just half his cuts in 12 events. Sure, he could be inspired by the return to a course on which he has form of 2/6 in 2001/2 but a much more relevant stat is recent finishes in this event, although on a different track, of mc/mc.

He is up against two different players this week and Mannessaro should be up to beating him too, but the vote went to consistent Anders Hansen. The Dane was surprised that he found form from nowhere when 5th in China, but showed that to be no fluke when very unfortunate a week later in Singapore. Looking very good for most of the weekend, he seemed almost shocked as Felipe Aguilar shot a back-nine 28 including an eagle two at the last. That form looks solid with the winner going on to perform well since, and Hansen himself has backed it up with high-30 efforts at the BMW and Nordea. Key here is that Hansen continually finds fairways and greens whilst his efforts with the putter outshine Pod by some way. He may not have to do anything other than repeat form here, a 35th in 2002 or even the 22nd of last year at Carlton House. Either way unless Pod finds amazing improvement via several bottles of Guinness, this is not a your-pick in any way, shape or form. 

I have no issues with Casey's form this year although it seems to be fading away as he approaches his sixth working week in a row. The defending Champ comes here after a good run on the PGA Tour and several top-20s, it is just that his iron play seems to be slightly off at present and, on a course where birdies will be made aplenty, that isn't great news. I am also unsure that a shortish track works in his favour and whilst he was 13th here 12 years ago, his coach Peter Kostis did mention that he was tired at the St.Jude when fading from a promising start (thanks to a Twitter contributor for that reminder). His play at Pinehurst seemed to suffer with a spate of double bogeys, he looks done for a while, and he faces a couple of young pin-seekers this week that may be simply too keen and too birdie-friendly for Case, who really should be shaving pretty soon, perhaps on his week off.

Both Dubuisson and Willett look to have a good couple of years ahead of them. The former has recently recovered from a shoulder problem to be a closing runner-up at the Nordea, whilst last weekends top-30 at the US Open could have been far better but for an unspectacular final round. The Frenchman will be advantaged by having the enforced rest and with his GIR stats and par-4 performances ranking very highly, his length should allow him to take shortish clubs into these greens, giving a pile of chances. I am ignoring previous Irish form as it looks irrelevant to the player that tees it up today and, of the top lot in the market, he looks the most likely to shoot four birdie-filled low ones, especially with the short par-5s.

Willett was another to fare better than Casey last weekend. He received quite a lot of coverage for a man of his status in the States and he did seem to enjoy the challenge of Pinehurst #2, often found shooting at the pins and eventually ranking 2nd in 'birdie leaders', just one behind winner Kaymer and T4 in par-4 birdie leaders, an excellent pointer to iron play. That kind of attacking play will suit Fota Island this week and taking Wentworth out of the equation, will continue a fine run of form with five top-20s this year already. There seems to a point in most events when Willett goes on a birdie run and looks to shoot silly low, and this course looks made for him.