Trophee Hassan II

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Michael Hoey to beat Bernd Wiesberger - 5 points @ Evens (sporting) 

The first thing that struck me when the outright prices came out for this event was that Michael Hoey was rated less of a win chance than the Austrian and because of that, the 72-hole matchbetting was always going to see him as outsider. For me, that is incorrect.

Wiesberger is respected as a two-time winner on Tour and, of course,  at under 30 years of age still has his peak in front of him. However, over the past couple of seasons, he seems to have become very unreliable, even more so when in a challenging position. At Portugal, France and at the Jonnie Walker he seemed to lose the ability with the short irons, often having to make scrambling his priority and often coming short. Before that he was much fancied for a variety of events but always seemed to put in a shoddy few holes before coming again.  Of course the Austrian has a natural ability to shoot very low, hence his often eyecatching finishes but he hasn’t convinced at all yet this season and the 9^th in Dubai is the standout effort of the last dozen or so. He was predictably thrashed by Matt Kuchar at the recent Matchplay event and that is best ignored but it is still the latest piece of form ,and even last season’s 5^th in this event was courtesy of an average start, a catchup midway and then a fade when in with half-a-chance. For the moment he isn’t trustworthy as a player that can deliver consistency and he may struggle to defeat his in-form matchup oppo this week.

If you talk unreliability, than Michael Hoey is possibly up there. Whilst he is a five-time winner on this Tour, he is very hard to predict, often blowing chances even in his favoured conditions. However, he did win very well in Russia last year and has since returned decent enough efforts at windy Perth and Abu Dhabi. More relevant though is (obviously) his win here in 2011 when shooting 65/65 over the weekend and his recent runner-up at the Tshwane Open.

Impossible to tell but Hoey looked all over the eventual winner, closing overnight leader Ross Fisher down to a single shot via impressive approach play and putting, before a (typical Hoey?) over-aggressive shot into the 12^th and a dunk. That double-bogey gave Fisher the confidence to then kick-on but it is open to question if he could have done that without help. Perhaps for this week that is a good thing for the Irishman, he commented that  “It’s nice to be up there and not win; I know that sounds crazy, but normally I just win. For me to finish top three without winning is a good start.” That confidence, the good recent effort,  allied with his form here and ability in the predicted wind and rain gives him an edge over his oppo. It may not be by huge amounts, but enough to think that Hoey should not be evens outsider.

Simon Dyson to beat Tommy Fleetwood and Paul Waring - 3 points @ 13-8 (Skybet)

The rejuvanted Dyson is a player I wanted to be with this week in some way, and this match bet looks the best value out there. Firstly, despite being a huge Tommy Fleetwood fan, he has gone backwards very quickly since that excellent 3rd at the Volvo Champions. Although he perhaps should have won having joint-led at halfway and with the sole lead after day three, signs were promising from a man that admits he gets better as the season draws on. In that regard, subsequent form is shocking, his stats (especially putting) are regressing and he has no course form to speak of, with a m/c last season preceeded by 37th in 2012. He has to be red-lined.

Waring was a decent amateur player and whilst he hasn't won on any Tour yet, six top-10s in his last couple of seasons since injury suggests he can continue to put in a decent effort her and there. However, he led and eventually came 3rd at the Portugal Masters and although he is currently sandwiching m/c's with top-20s, that's probably as best a result he can get at the moment and simply does not compare with an on-song Simon Dyson.   

That's probably a bit harsh on Waring but, as said, if 6-time Tour winner Dyson really is back to form he will take some stopping around a track that looks perfect for him. Not the longest off the tee, Dyce has won the KLM Open three times and was third there last season, whilst wins in Ireland and the Dunhill Links all point the delights of a sometimes windy, coastal, linksy track such as the Palace Royal.

Dyson's issue is, of course, his suspended ban for alleged cheating which could hang over him for a tad longer. I personally felt that far too much was made out of it, but nevertheless the reaction of some of his fellow pros was a disgrace. Having flirted with injury, the last thing the Cheshire player needed was a further set-back to his game. However despite often feeling like the game was running away from him, he has done extremely well to put it all behind him and 'knuckle down and get my head sorted and start enjoying it again'. He played very well through the desert swing and followed two poor efforts in South Africa with an excellent show at the Tshwane Open, where a final finish of 10th was much worse than deserved. Flawless in an opening 65, he was concerned about his putting from there on but played extremely well, giving himself many more chances than he took. Recent stats fit very nicely for this course, he has been in the top echelons for scrambling and putting recently and with his mental state now far more positive than recently, can improve on a steady 29th on his only run here in 2011.