Trophee Hassan II

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3-0; +6.10pts  (system plays: 4-2-2) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Danny Willett to beat Morten Orum Madsen -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 10
Plenty to favour the Englishman here: he has been in very good form so far this year with three top-20 finishes in his four starts this year and that means that he has finished ahead of Madsen in all three common events this year. In fact, it has been five months since Madsen finished ahead of him in any tournament. And there is Willett's previous performances on this course: in his three previous visits, he has finished 7th (2010), 11th (2011) and he was inside the top-10 at the cut last time in 2012.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Howell tb Lowry -115 (T)] 

Round 2 play (2pts):

Gregory Bourdy to beat Tom Lewis +105 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
A big difference between the morning and afternoon conditions today with the morning players averaging 1.85 shots better than the afternoon players. Of these two players, Bourdy played in the afternoon today and Lewis in the morning, but Bourdy finished the day in 10th place and Lewis 17th, so Bourdy clearly played much better than his opponent. With the tee-times revresed tomorrow, I fully expect him to significantly extend his lead over the Englishman and close in on finishing ahead of his opponent in 12 of the last 15 common events.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Ormsby tb Warren +100 (W); Wood tb Wattel +100 (W); Wood tb Hoey +100 (T)] 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Robert Karlsson to beat Michael Hoey -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 6
A winner two years and 2nd last time out means that Hoey is over-priced this week. He does lie 8th after two rounds, but his ball-striking stats have been poor and suggestive that he may struggle to remain there over the weekend. Karlsson has hit a lot more greens in regulation and in coming off a top-15 finish on the PGA Tour last week; he appears to be playing better than his opponent and so is likely to extend his current 48-14 h2h record against him.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Bourdy tb Canizares -111 (L); Dinwiddie tb Goya -125 (W); Cabrera-Bello tb Karlsson -125 (L); Bourdy tb Hoey -120 (W)]

No round 4 plays