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18-Hole Match Picks - European Tour |
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2-0; +4.00pts (system plays: 4-4-1) Round 1 play (2pts): Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to beat Matteo Manassero -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James] WON by 1
It has been a relatively successful first full-time season on the PGA Tour for the Spaniard - he has made seven of his last eight cuts and put himself in contention last week, finishing the 1st round of the Players Championship, just as he had done in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It has been 25 events and over 20 months since he missed a cut on the European Tour and I don't expect him to do so in his home Open. Manassero has missed two of his last three cuts and, unlike GFC, does not have any previous experience of this week's course. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Colsaerts tb Ilonen -110 (W); Wiesberger tb Luiten +100 (L); Saddier tb Madsen -120 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Adrian Otaegui to beat Carlos Pigem -111 @ Bet365 [available generally] TIED
Two home players in the top-20, but with very different histories in this position. Otaegui has been inside the top-20 at the cut on three occasions on the European Tour this year alone and finished in the top-20 every time. Pigem has never been inside the top-20 after any round on the European Tour until now, so I don't expect him to stay there tomorrow. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Garcia tb Molinari F -138 (W); Derksen tb Korhonen -110 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Thomas Pieters -163 @ SkyBet [available generally] WON by 2
Lots of bookies have MAJ much shorter in this matchup of the final pairing tomorrow. For Pieters to be leading after 54 holes is quite a surprise - in his nine previous starts in 2014, he had made the cut just once. He did finish 8th in the Malaysian Open last month, but that was from off the pace, having opened with a 75. He did hold the lead after 36 holes, but quickly lost it with a poor opening few holes today and expect the same thing to happen tomorrow. That he will be paired with home favourite, Jimenez, will only add to his pressure, so I do find these odds good value. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Jimenez tb Luiten -125 (L); Jimenez tb Wood -138 (W); Molinari F tb Luiten -138 (L); Aguilar F tb Ramsay -125 (T)]
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