Dubai Desert Classic

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Ernie Els to beat Romain Wattel - 5.5 points @ 10-11 (General)

Stephen Gallacher to beat Jamie Donaldson and Francesco Molinari - 2.4 points @ 13-8 (Skybet) 

Despite Wattel looking ready to win very soon, he hasn't convinced that he can come good against this class of field. Whilst this is an almost perfect place to win your 'biggie' in the same fashion as Rafa Cabrera-Bello did in 2012, the Frenchman still makes very novicey errors at vital stages and he'll do well to overcome a standing dish here at the Emirates.

It isn't as if the younger man is playing badly - 3rd, 4th and 11th in four starts in 2014 is going some, and he does seem to recover from bad rounds as he did last week in Qatar, rallying after a third round 74. However, it is consistently a concern that he does that when in contention, and this field is too full of class and course form to get away with it. 52nd here last season after a final round 77 (there we go again), a return to the 12th of 2012 may still not be enough.

On the other hand, Els loves it here. It's hard to know whether or not he turns up just for the money, but he was keen enough to change the manufacturer of his clubs earlier this year and told a national newspaper, "My contract started on 1 January, so that's maybe why I didn't play in Durban and Abu Dhabi. I felt like I wasn't quite going to be ready.

"So I played in South Africa, some social golf, and started really feeling comfortable. And it really feels great. I even feel like the driver is nice. I'm hitting it a little farther I think. I was hitting it with the young boys today.

"The hybrids are nice and if I get that putter warm, I think we're going to have a nice time. So I'm really excited. It's like a man with new toys. I'm quite excited about the year."

"I have been struggling with the driver the last couple of years," he added. "So to find one that goes; and I can move it right to left at will and I don't really have to work hard to move it right to left, I can hit the whole shot. I'm really looking forward to the next couple of rounds."   

Els may think he struggled, but was plenty good enough to beat Thomas Bjorn in Germany last year as a follow-up to 13th at The Masters, 6th in the BMW at his old home Wentworth and 4th in the U.S Open. Anything like that form sees him right there on a track on which he finished in the top-3 for eight out of nine starts between 1998-2008. The missed-cut of 2009 is pretty much irrelevent amidst all the positive vibes he is giving out and he should know too much for his younger oppo.

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The other bet involves a 3-way match and whilst backing defending Champs is tough, Stephen Gallacher appeals strongly as top-dog of the trio.  

The Scot looks to be coming right for his defence here with an 8th at Abu followed by top-30 last week in Qatar. Surprisingly, latterly it was Gallacher's accuracy with the approaches that was to blame for not pushing forward from a promising halfway position but that will be expected to improve again this week on a course on which he ranked 4th in distance, 12th in GIR and 5th in putting last season, and 5th and 1st for greens hit and putting when runner-up in 2012. With a course record improving from 31st in 2010 through to winning last year, and a warm-up when 3rd in the Champions Challenge, it is very hard to see him failing to make a contribution this week.

Donaldson has the length to succeed here but has never really caught fire around this track and comes here off a moderate effort at Abu (56th), average even if he was defending champ. He is the first ruled out, and as such Molinari is expected to be the biggest challenger to the selection.

Nobody does Frani like Frani does Frani, and no doubt he will come there cruising along before making a horlicks of a cert birdie chance or two. Some of the Italian Ryder-cupper's approach play is sublime and he can often look like a champion. However three wins in eight years tells it's own story and whilst you don't need to win the event to win this bet, his lack of length proves crucial around here with a best of 16th in 2012 from seven starts. When the wind blows across the fairways, these short hitters suffer badly and with this being his first start for six weeks, his case is unconvincing.