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Edoardo Molinari - 1 point @ 110 (Betfair) Edoardo Molinari - 0.75 point e/way @ 80-1 (General) Henrik Stenson - 3 points win @ 8-1 (Sportingbet/888/Unibet) Adding a couple after the cut stage because there simply is no option if Rory is being kept artificially short. Again, Rory should win from here but is he really a 4-5 chance? He stuttered today and although he kept it going well enough to hold the lead, the driving was appalling, wrong decisions were made and he will have to play a heap better to hold off some charging earlier starters especially when facing the toughest conditions of the day. Nobody needs telling that he is able to do this easily but he isn't odds-on to do so given the quality of some of the players within four and five shots. With a few unproven players in the mix, by far the biggest danger is Henrik Stenson, arguably the best player in the world at present. It may shock a few to learn that he is tipped here as I have never been his biggest fan, however, he looks to have shaken off the rust of a mini-break during the Christmas/New Year period and was back to the form today that saw him run away with both the R2D and the lucrative Fedex events. Stenson has a file of decent form around this course, with one win and plenty of top-10's, and after a couple of seasons on the missing list can probably boast the best form out there with wins at both Tour championship finales. Stenson commented he hasn't played as well as he did when joint-winner of the pre-event Champions jamboree, but that he is hitting it well and it is still progressing. If that is the case, he is unflappable in the mix and will be shorter than his current price come tomorrow night. Italian Molinari has been plagued by injury over the last couple of seasons. An extremely admirable golfer, he has much more variety in his game than his brother Francesco and is hopefully on the way to the form that saw him become an automatic pick for the 2010 Ryder Cup in spectacular fashion, making vital birdies on the final two holes at Gleneagles to follow up his win in the Scottish Open. As well as recovering from wrist injury, 'Dodo' has been reworking his swing with Sean Foley, coach of Tiger Woods and Justin Rose amongst others, and with that operation always taking time to reach fulfillment, the recent loss of form was less of a concern than the figures may imply. Certainly the players accept that fact and Edoardo has never made any negative comment, always suggesting that it will come together. As a proven multiple winner who was 4th here on his debut in 2010, who is striping it long and very accurately (ranked 1st this week so far), he is huge at three-figures on the machine and too big on an each-way basis given that the likes of Donaldson and Jaidee are on the same mark but half the price. Already advised Paul Lawrie - 0.5 point eachway @ 70-1 (Corals) Paul Lawrie - 1.0 points @ 140 (Betfair) Paul Lawrie - Lay 5.0 points (Keep in play) @ 16 (Betfair) Paul Lawrie - 2 points Top-10 @ 16-5 (Corals) Mikko Ilonen - 0.5 points eachway @ 100-1 (Corals/SpreadEx) Mikko Ilonen - 1.0 point @ 160 (Betfair) Mikko Ilonen - Lay 5.0 points (Keep in play) @ 16 (Betfair) Mikko Ilonen - 2 points Top-10 @ 5-1 (Stan James)
If the betting is to believed, they may as well give Rory McIlroy the trophy now. Yep, he looked superb this morning and seems extremely happy with life and his game at the moment but betting at odds-on after round one is lunacy. saying that, it gives plenty of opportunity for huge prices on proven winners and they have to be put in the portfolio, even at this early stage. First up and backed both on Betfair and fixed odds is one of last weeks selections Paul Lawrie. Lawrie disappointed last week after a decent third round put him in contention and he once again lamented the cold putter. On reflection, he admitted that he actually played quite well and has already mentioned his pleasure with the new irons and putter he is using. We'll need a bit more evidence that they are working to full effect but having been ill earlier this week, Lawrie shot a decent 4-under 68 today after a bogey-bogey start, hit 11/14 fairways and 15 GIR and he'll be expecting to keep that up over the next couple of days. Given he starts on the easier back-nine, where he shot 4-under today, I'd be very hopeful that he will make a forward move tomorrow. Okay, previous course form is a tad ropey here, but for a proven winner, and in the desert and one that can cope with any wind that may arrive, the prices seem huge. Quite happy to take the 70-1 with Corals each-way, I can't resist a little bit of the 140-150 on Betfair to use as trading tool, nor the 3-1 for a top-10 finish. Also on Betfair, in-form Mikko Illonen is too big at 15-160, but he can be backed at 100-1 with a few firms and again, he is backed all ways. The Finn proved himself under pressure when winning the Nordea Masters last season to make it three top-grade victories and hasn't played badly for a while now, finishing 2013 ranked 23rd in the R2D. Warmed up after the Volvo Champions, a respectable if not stunning 19th, the missed-cut at Abu is ignored easily after last weeks play-off loss to Sergio at Qatar. Needing a 15-foot putt on the 72nd, Illonen's effort never looked anywhere else but the centre of the cup and it took Garcia three holes to finally shake him off. Illonen is streaky and has to be caught when in form. He commented that today was 'stress free' and that the scores will come if continuing to play in the same fashion (another who hit 15 GIR) and at 160 he has to be played alongside the fixed odds and top-10 markets. With both selections so far, keep a lay 'in play' at 16 for a profit on the bet. Should either reach the relatively modest target set, they will make a profit and run for 64 and 84 points respectively.
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