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Branden Grace to beat Chris Wood - 5 points @ 4-5 (SpreadEx)

According to my wife, the homecoming of our 2nd born is far more important than the start of the 2014 European Golf season, however once I told her that you can back Grace over Wood at better than 4-6, she had no choice but to concede defeat.

When in South Afrcia, back a ...blah blah, yeh we know. Each case on it's own merits but here the still improving South African looks to have a significant advantage over his oppo this week and must be backed at the only show of 4-5.

Grace lept to the stratosphere of golf with a blistering 2012, winning the Joburg Open and this event in subsequent weeks, in the latter beating African legends Ernie Els and Retief Goosen in a play-off. He then rounded off a stellar year by winning the Volvo China Open and the Dunhill Links (in record score) whilst fitting in his third Sunshine Tour trophy just in-between. The 25-year-old was always going to struggle to repeat that feat and as often happens with these young players, didn't really kick-on during 2013 although there were signs of his classy play with a top-5 in Abu Dhabi, a semi-final loss (to eventual winner Greame McDowell in the Matchplay) and a play-off loss to two-time Major winner in 2013, Phil Mickleson, at the Scottish Open. Throughout last season Grace seemed to suffer with his driving and thus his appraoch play, forcing him to scramble far more than was the case for the previous twelve months but signs were better during the two South African events at the end of 2013 and although he couldn't progress from a promising position at halfway last time out, his approach play was far more encouraging.

There cannot be too much coincidence that Grace plays well in events sponsered by Volvo, and said recently “I don't know what it is, but Volvo keep choosing golf courses I like playing,” said Grace. “And when they choose courses I haven’t played, I like them by the end of the week. ....This event is a great way to start the year, and I had a good week last year.''. As the man says, 7th last year around here (during awful weather for much of the event) when defending his title (although at a different track) will give him encouragement for this week, whilst a look at his career record at home makes impressive reading, with countless top-5 and top-10s.

Opposing Chris Wood isn't that easy for me. The very likeable Bristolian is another mid-20s improver and I'll always have a soft spot for him after that effort in the 2008 Open, when a chip-and-putt away from a play-off. He struggled to confirm that form afterwards often throwing away plenty of chances when clear into Sunday, but didn't a certain Justin Rose do much worse for his first three years or so as a Pro? Wood eventually triumphed on the One-Asia Tour and learnt a lot from that downgrade, when winning the lucrative Qatar Masters with a superb Eagle at the final hole. He still doesn't convince me under the cosh and he looks destined to win many true Links events than others, both factors that enhance the view that he may be here just for the outing. Wood has little form in the country with just one runner-up in five starts, and whilst that should never bother those who wish to be with a player with his best days ahead of him, there is nothing there to suggest that this week he can beat Grace, a player who will be very much 'up' for this. Oh right, nappy changing......