BMW PGA Championship

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2-2; +0.00pts  (system plays: 2-5-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Padraig Harrington -120 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 3
Jaidee has a very solid record at Wentworth - he has played in each of the last 11 years and missed the cut only once. That contrasts sharply with Harrington who has played here only once in the last three years, when he missed the cut and finished ahead of just five players. He did show better form last week in the Byron Nelson Championship until the final round when he finished 22nd, but he had failed to register even a top-60 finish in his previous eight starts and poor form and a handover from the trans-Atlantic flight should be enough reason to oppose him. With Jaidee in decent form, he really should extend his h2h record against Harrington to eight wins in their last nine common events.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Jaidee tb Gallacher +100 (L); Donaldson tb Luiten -115 (L); Els tb Fisher R +110 (L)] 

Round 2 play (2pts):

Paul Lawrie to beat Marc Warren -118 @  Pinnacle [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 2
Two players who have been runners-up in the last two years. Lawrie had been away from the Tour for a couple of months with injury, but he did show good form last week in Spain with a top-15 finish and, according to his blog, he did play much better than his level-par 72 today. Nevertheless, he still scored better than Warren today and I'd expect the same tomorrow if he continues to play as well.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Willett tb Horsey -109 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello -163 @ Stan James, SkyBet, William Hill and Boyle Sports  [available generally]  WON by 5
Donald shot the low round of the day and that would normally be good reason to oppose him in the next round, but this is a player who has won this title twice in the last three years and he is still four shots behind the leaders despite being 3rd alongside Cabrera-Bello. The Spaniard didn't play as well today - he hit less than 50% of greens in regulation - and he has to overcome a poor record in this position. In the eight previous times that he has started rd3 in the top-5 in a European Tour event, he has shot 77-71-70-77-71-73-73-75 in that round. It certainly doesn't suggest that he will score well tomorrow from this position.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Westwood tb Wiesberger -138 (W); Hansen, A tb Benson -125 (L); Willett tb Rock -125 (T); Rose tb Kaymer -129 (L)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Edoardo Molinari to beat Branden Grace +138 @ BetVictor [also available @ Bet365, Paddy Power and Boyle Sports]  WON by 3
I'll take these odds on a player who has missed just one of his last eight cuts against a player who has made just one cut since the start of February. Both are 16 shots off the pace, so again there is little to justify such a large price for either player. Given that Grace has been struggling for form for quite some time - his last top-10 finish South Africa was in July 2013 - he should be the underdog in this matchup.