BMW Masters

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Thongchai Jaidee to beat George Coetzee - 5 points @ 10-11 (Betfred/Sporting)

Only because of their head-to-heads did I think long and hard about this play, the only appealing one of this week's offers. In the end though, Brian, the case for Jaidee in China was too strong.

Firstly the South African. It may be that the Joburg Open champion is coming to form at the right time in order to defend when the Tour moves back home, but I would want to see better results in full field class competitions before backing him in this sort of contest. Coetzee has done little during the Summer, posting a couple of top-30s but never really threatening and whilst the Matchplay was decent event for him that is totally irrelevent this week. Putting is saving him and when that happens it just puts too much pressure on the long game after a while and GIR will be a huge factor this week. His 6th on debut here in 2012 is fine but the best result in China since then has been 56th. He'll have work to do to keep his game going for four rounds.

Jaidee ranks 8 places above his rival on the R2D and that after an excellent, consistent season. The win in the Nordea came courtesy of a weekend 68/65 and he can back that up with top-10s at Germany and France, and even 6th at Doral if you go back to March. The Thai warrior has missed just two cuts this year, both at US majors and comes here after top-20s in Wales (3rd after round three) and the shortened Portugal Masters. Last week's closing 65 saw him inside the top-10 at Macau and looks a perfect warm-up for this event in which he can boast form figures of 2/16. Given his results here and through the year have come in varying conditions, he won't mind what Mother Nature brings and his overall form in Asia is, of course, up there with the best of them.

I see the Thai finishing top-15 at worst in this field, I could not be confident Coetzee will do the same.