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Shane Lowry - 3 points @ 32 (Betfair) Jamie Donaldson - 3.5 points @ 29 (Betfair) Ross Fisher - 0.85 points @ 120 (Betfair) Miko Illonen - 2 points @ 48 (Betfair) Lay all four players - 13 points @ 6 (Betfair) If any of the above four reach the lay price, the bet is in profit with 30+ points that particular player. With soft-ground rules in place, the likes of big-hitting Colsaerts and Levy were always going to have an advantage and they have opened up a two-shot gap on perennial loser Romain Wattel and a further shot back to the field. Nevertheless, the Begian bomber is only 1 from 6 when leading at halfway and just 2/16 when in the final group, all suggesting that prices around 3.75 are too short, especially given the many low rounds out there, and the proven winning ability of many of the top fifteen or so. Already this year, Colsaerts has lobbed away a chance at Wales, whilst his effort in front at Portugal was pathetic. Of course, the event at The Dunes was restictied to just 36 holes but Alex Levy managed to easily overhaul Colsaerts three-shot advantage with a second-round 61 and this confident young French star will fancy his chances when eye-balling him again over the weekend. Having won his maiden at the China Open earlier this year, a similar attacking display on receptive greens sees him as far the better bet of the front two. Still, the Betfair lay odds suggest it is 11-10 (ish) that either of those lift the Trophy and that is far too short at this stage. Instead take a small team of chasers to close in and make their life more uncomfortable down the stretch on Payday. Although slightly concerned about his distance off the tee, Shane Lowry is exactly the player to benefit from a birdie-fest on softened greens. His stats this week are very respectable, finding plenty of fairways and greens and putting far better than he did at the Matchplay. He has that link with Levy via a win at Portugal and I can see him closing in quickly given these continued conditions and excellent recent form. In his last twelve Sunday rounds (inc Portugal) Lowry's worst round in 71 way back in May at a tough Spanish Open, whilst recent weekends include an array of mid-60 finishes. Form of 24/5 around here is fine (closed with 67/68 respectively) and he looks an ever-present this weekend. Welshman Jamie Donaldson had a mare on the third hole in the first round, and but for that would be in the top-5 and trading much shorter. Again, he loves a weekend chase with only one round in the 70s in his last three strokeplay events. Capable of destroying the par-5s in similar fashion to the front two, it is about time he put his head in front again and he is yet another player that stands out as a closer. I just baulk at putting Justin Rose in and I don't know why. He is the class element here and has plenty of form at coming from off the pace. Instead I am including Ross Fisher (don't frown) on the same score but five times the price. Fisher is very tough to read but these long tracks and wet greens are right up his street. Everything about him is concentrated around the flat stick. He'll have as many chacnes as anyone over the weekend (hit 17 GIR today) but it will depend on the putts dropping. I just feel that his price of 120 is a good few points too big given the putts can drop at anytime. I'm reluctant to leave out my old favourite Thomas Bjorn but need to see him complete a full four rounds in good health, so Miko Illonen, who comes here with massive confidence after that Matchplay win, is in the plan. Illonen is a proven winner, and one who has decent form in China - 4/2/8 in the China Open. I've forgiven his form here last year due to the opening 80 as he did well to finish top-50 after that and he has only made one error in two rounds this week. His previous wins in Ireland and Sweden have been full of bottle and guts and they may be needed if the field close up on Sunday. Unlike Fisher, this player can putt and given the chance will go very low indeed. There is something that tells me Levy may do it again, but if he doesn't this event is far more open than the odds suggest. Trade these as a group, hopefully leaving some meat for Payday.
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