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THOMAS BJORN - 1.25 POINT EACH-WAY @ 28-1 (STAN JAMES) 1/4 123 MICHAEL HOEY - 1.25 POINTS EACH-WAY @ 40-1 (LADBROKES) 1/4 123 Rory McIlroy was the reason for no column at halfway, yet he is the sole reason for one now! Having looked magnificent on Friday, he went off a deserved best 5-2 before the third round and had looked to be coming back to his top-class best and hard to oppose . However, a tip-off by his playing partner's caddie , a bit of a review, and he finds himself three off the lead instead of just one and in the final group. Despite Phil Mickelson's move today, at 11-under it did look as if Rory was virtually home but golf does have a habit of bringing drama where none may have previously been and thus we have a much more open contest. Conditions have been easier over the last couple of days than they were on Day One but missing the fairway will still result in serious trouble for even these players and as many have shown this week, it is truly a case of the old cliche 'drives for show, putts for dough'. Take big Phil for example, hitting only 48% of his fairways but in second place due to stunning appraches and putts, whilst the likes of Joost Luiten along with my fancy overnight at halfway Tommy Fleetwood are hitting them consistently but not making the most of their oppertunities. Fleetwood, in particular, in well worth looking at over the next few weeks, playing quite beautifully and it is just a matter of 'when' not 'if' he wins again. For now, take on the front lot. Craig Lee put up some excellent efforts last season, including runner-up to course specialist Thomas Bjorn at Crans, and he has clearly benefitted from converting his front garden to an astroturf putting green, but this is huge in an event that is usually won by a proven Grade One winner, and he will do well to play in the final group with such an enigma as Mickelson. Top that with the worst of the weeks weather, maybe rain and wind, and he looks vulnerable even if he would be a deserved winner. Despite McIlroy's play, the fact remains that he hasn't won here and hasn't put his head in front this week, and whilst he could easily walk away from these,, he won't get away with any lapse and with proven multiple winners just behind, looks just too short at 3-1. Instead take a couple of proven winners, both of whom revel in forecast conditions and should be able to trade much lower than their current prices. Veterans Miguel Angel Jimenez and Thomas Bjorn both have form here and in the dessert generally but whilst the former doesn't produce his best in adverse weather, the Dane revels in it. Winner at Crans (for the second time), Bjorn held his own throughout last season, also running-up to Luiten and Els in consecutive weeks before a top-5 in the BMW in China and a win at the high-class Nedbank to end 2013. His 10th in the Volvo Champions last week was all the meritous for the opening 79 and he has now shot 8 rounds in the 60's from his last 12 rounds giving form figures of 2/1/10. Here, Bjorn has played far better than his current score and hit 10-under after just 8 holes of today's round. Bjorn found more bunkers than an Army during his third round but I'd expect him to relish the position he is in and is absolutely proven when a handful of shots behind the pace having already shot 69 or less on seven of his last ten Sundays. Combine the Dane with Michael Hoey, who is extremely unpredictable but looks large at 40-1 given he has only made three bogies this week and is priced simply as he isn't a 'name'. The Northern Irishman is 10th for accuracy off the tee, 3rd for distance, 10th in GIR, all figures that show his game is in very fine shape. It is true that he has little form here but he looks to have escaped the attentions of most of the viewers, is working on the timing of his swing rather than smashing it (still ranking over 300-yards) and is simply too big. Again, choosing between the fixed odds and Betfair is tough as any of the players could hit low, nick 3rd yet never be with a hope of winning (and getting matched on what is now poor liquidity), so plump for the each-way odds with the books - this week I'll leave it to you to lay back if they do close as expected.
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