Abu Dhabi Golf Championship

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0-2; -6.50pts  (system plays: 6-1-3)

Round 1 play (4pts):

Sergio Garcia to beat Rory McIlroy +110 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill]  LOST by 6
I'll take these odds on Sergio. He finished 2013 in great form, finishing 4th, 2nd and 1st in November-December. He has also finished in the top-15 in all five previous appearances in this event. McIlroy did win the Australian Open, but was 13 shots off the pace in his last event of 2013 (Northwestern Mutual World Challenge) and he doesn't yet have the consistency that Garcia has shown. Finally, Garcia led McIlroy 8-5-1 h2h in 2013, including each of their last three common events when McIlroy's form had improved at the start of the year. As such, I would price Garcia at pick'em at worst.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Donaldson tb Mickelson +100 (T); Hanson tb Wiesberger -111 (W); Fichardt tb Huizing -120 (W)] 

Round 2 play (2pts):

Marcel Siem to beat George Coetzee +100 @ Bet365  TIED
Coetzee has a very good record on this course - top-10 finishes in each of the last two years - but it has been over 11 months since his last top-10 finish and he missed his last two cuts in South Africa in December. Siem was in contention for most of last week before finishing 15th and responded to a double-bogey on the 9th hole to being four-under-par on the back nine and only two shots off the lead. In this form and confidence, I'll back the German at plus odds against a player who has a strong dose of contention rust.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Garcia tb Kaymer +135 (W); Hanson tb Casey +105 (W)] 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Sergio Garcia to beat Phil Mickelson -125 @ Bet365  LOST by 7
It was quite a performance today from Garcia. Not only did he improve on yesterday's score by eight shots to make the cut on the mark, he did so after being interviewed by John Paramor regarding a TV viewer who had reported him for 'tapping down a spike mark' in the first round. As the TV coverage had not shown that he had just repaired a pitch mark which he was seen to tap down, he was exonerated, but it was still very impressive to play as well as he did given the controversy. I think that he will carry over teh same determination to tomorrow's round and carry on the form that has netted him finishes of 4th, 2nd and 1st in his last three starts. Mickelson hasn't played for eleven weeks and has looked far from his best this week; he may find it difficult to improve on his current 43rd place position.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Garcia tb Wood -138 (W); Quiros tb Fisher, O -120 (W); Donald tb Carlsson -138 (T); Campillo tb De La Riva -110 (L)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -105 @ Bet365  TIED
Two players within four shots of the lead, but I'll side with Jaidee in this position. He has a better record on this course - five top-15 finishes here to Jimenez's three - and he has played much better tee-to-green than the Spaniard: he ranks 5th in greens in regulation so far this week; Jimenez is 50th. That is merely a continuation of the form that the Thai showed in December with three top-10 finishes.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Kapur tb Waring -110 (T)]