Tournament Match Picks - WGC

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Paul Casey to beat Lee Westwood - 4 points win @ Evens (Sportingbet) 

It's fair to include most Tours in this final WGC, a tournament of winners and there is a tempting wager out there.

Paul Casey won very well for this column last week although, to be fair, opponent Louis Oosthuizen was dire. Nevertheless, Casey did continue his stunning top-ten run in China which now runs at 62% from 21 runs, and there is no reason why he cannot repeat or improve on last week's 8th place.

Following an indifferent run, Casey showed that he repeats form at certain tracks and for some slightly odd decisions on-course, he was almost certain to reward the each-way faithful just a few days ago. An incorrect decision on the short par-4 11th and mistakes after that were to prove costly although there was plenty in his game to think he can continue in form as the season draws to a close. As said, key to Casey is that he produces results at the same tracks year-in-year-out and his stats have bounced back to something around their best. This week, Casey has another favoured track, Sheshan, where he has recorded five top-10s from seven starts, with the other two an 11th and an unfortunate withdrawal. Case looks to have the bit between his teeth and surely must have learned from last week that he needs to attack more on the weekend - he can do that here and if continuing to turn those irons into genuine chances, will surely get a better 'rub of the green'. Confidently expected to land another top-10, he may do enough to beat his high-profile but ultimately disappointing oppo.

Westwood needs little introduction (as with most of the players on show this week) and whilst he too has a decent record in China with 45% top-10s in 11 starts, he is looking decidedly average at present and is not coming here on top of his game. He has had genuine chances to win here before and it would be wrong to criticise his runner-up to Franni Molinari in 2010, but he does find it hard to get it done, and with only one finish in the top-25 (a very average 24th last week) in his last six events, it is hard to see how he will finish in front of a player on very good terms with himself. Westwood isn't shining in any of the vital stats, is missing fairways and is one of the most unreliable scramblers and putters in the top echelon. It will need a very positive outlook to turn this around in a hot field this week, and whilst that is always possible, very little in his recent game matches the record of his oppo. Whatever the view, making Casey the outsider here is incorrect