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Justin Rose to beat Rory McIlroy 6 points @ Evens (General)

The top of the outright market is chock-full of quality and a good few have been giving notice of an imminent victory, most notably Martin Kaymer, Ian Poulter and Justin Rose and it is to the latter that we turn for the final event of the 'proper' European season.

Its always tough to go against a rare talent such as Rory (all good sportsman seem to be able to be recognised by just their first names) but even with the runner-up in Korea and the 6th in China, he just hasn't convinced that he about to dominate in similar fashion to either his Major wins or his victory here at the Earth Course in 2012. Back then he was coming off a super season, his star was very much in the ascendency and he produced a stunning display to overcome a flying Justin Rose and win going away, with five birdies through his final five holes. Winner five times in a stellar 2012, he has taken some severe knock-backs over the last ten months or so, taking time to bed in with his new clubs and having some personal issues outside of the game. There are signs that some of his game is returning and he spent much of the press conference after Korea telling all and sundry that his game was coming back, but the fact remains that he was only a couple of the pace at halfway after an 8-bogey second round and then fell ten back after an apppalling Saturday. That he rallied late on the final day gives more to the play of the field rather than any particular brilliance, although he commented that he felt the round could have been 61 or 62. It wasn't though.

Last time out at the prestigious HSBC Champions, McIlroy led by two after an excellent opening 7-under before steadily being overtaken as the event progressed and he simply cannot find four consistent rounds, something that will surely be needed against the best players the Tour can offer. Rory ranked poorly in driving accuracy over the last few weeks and whilst that isn't the be-all and end-all of this course it may just put too much pressure on the rest of his game certainly against a player such as Rose.     

Both Rose and McIlroy may look a tad short in the outright market given the overall quality of the field but the former does look primed for this event and whilst he hasn't again hit the heights of that US Open victory, he can hardly be said to have dropped away. A run of average results followed that first Major but he clicked again at the Barclays, running up to possibly the best player in the world at the present time, Adam Scott, and that in turn spurred the lightly-raced Rose on to a run of 16/33/6/5/3 , the last trio of recent events demonstrating top-class driving and approach play. Rose has ranked in the top echelon for GIR and putting for a while now and given he comes to Dubai off the back of a stunning 62 last season, he must be hugely confident of a good showing. There is nothing that stands out as 'poor' in any of the Englishman's recent run of form and he has not recorded anything worse than 72 since one round at the PGA way back in August. Indeed, Rose's consistency has been the stand-out feature and he does seem far more reliable than Rory in that respect this week, especially given that whilst he has not won this event in two starts, three runner-up finishes from four starts in the UAE is comparable with McIlroy's overall form. Okay, he lacks the wins but then is Rory the player of then? I'm certainly not convinced and expect Rose to go very close to winning this week, and certainly to keep bringing his 'A-game'. I couldn't be confident Rory will.