DP World Tour Championship

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2-2; +1.80pts  (system plays: 4-2-0) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Joost Luiten to beat Peter Uihlein -110 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Uihlein has had a great season, but the travelling may have caught up with him - he has finished 55th (of 78) and 57th (of 78) in the last two weeks. But even before then, Luiten was more than a match for him - the Dutchman holds a 6-2-1 h2h record against him since June. And with Uihlein making his course debut and Luiten having played here in the last three years (he was 5th at the start of the final round last year), there are enough indicators to back Luiten in this matchup.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Donaldson tb McDowell +100 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Ian Poulter to beat Henrik Stenson +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
With a dramatic finish set for the European Tour Order of Merit title, all the pressure is on the current leader. His three main challengers - Ian Poulter, Justin Rose and Jamie Donaldson - are all inside the top-10 after rd1 and even though Stenson was very good today, the pressure can only increase with so many of his challengers near the top of the leaderboard. Poulter is playing well enough to win the title on his own account, but it will only take a bout of nerves from the Swede and this should be an easy win regardless.

Round 3 play (4pts):

Ian Poulter to beat Kiradech Aphibarnrat -180 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  WON by 4
Poulter is an obvious odds-on favourite for this matchup given the difference in World Rankings and the bigger issue of the Race to Dubai, but, on top of that, Aphibarnrat has not been playing like a player who starts the weekend in 5th place: in a field of just 56, he ranks outside the top-20 in driving distance and outside the top-40 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Only two players hit fewer greens in regulation today. Poulter's momentum was lost when, after three birdies in five holes, he then missed two par putts from inside six feet. A bounce-back with three birdies in the last six holes sees him start the weekend inside the top-5 and five shots behind Stenson, so he can still win both titles from this position. I expect the drama to continue until Sunday.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: McIlroy tb Molinari -138 (W); Larrazabal tb Jimenez -130 (L); Kaymer tb Jaidee -150 (W); Donald tb Wood -125 (W)] 

Round 4 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Lee Westwood -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James]  WON by 1
Backing Donald to continue like he finished today with four straight birdies to end the day in 8th place, one shot behind Westwood who had a very different type of round - he was 7-under-par after 11 holes, but was then level-par for the rest of the round. Maybe that is typical of his recent performances when in contention - in the lat nine occasions that he has started the final round in the top-10, he has failed to break 70 once. With no top-20 finishes since the Open Championship, he looks opposable for tomorrow's final round.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Canizares tb Jimenez +100 (L)]