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Paul Casey - 1 point each -way @ 33-1 (Corals/Hills/Spreadex) Paul Casey - 4 points Top-10 @ 3-1 (Corals) Branden Grace - 2 points win @ 32 (Betfair) Marcel Siem - 1.5 points win @ 44 (Betfair) Lay Grace and Siem - 5 points @ 8 (Betfair) A mix of the experienced and rookies at the top of the board at halfway but very few make appeal at the current price. There looks to be wind arriving which may make the event far more interesting than the dull birdie-fest thus far, so three from a few back look far better value than most at sub-20 on their own. We may as well forget the majority of the form figures put up by Paul Casey over the last couple of years and instead believe that he is coming back to the form that made him ever-present in the top echolon until the end of 2011. Injury has taken it's toll but throughout the past few months there have been bits of form to suggest he is right there and he confirmed the promise of top-20s in Spain and China, along with a couple of rounds in the mid-60s in Sweden, by storming through to win the Irish Open in typically agressive style. Casey is extremely confident in his own ability but even by his standards the prediction that he would shoot low on that Sunday was brave. However, conquering wind, rain and sun(!) five birdies in six holes was enough to get him comfortably clear of his rivals. Now back to top form, Casey approaches next weeks Open with belief and looks to be tuning up perfectly already ranking top-20 for driving distance on this very open course, and 2nd in GIR. The putting is suffering so far this week but he'll have that in hand and a small improvement in that aspect will see him fly up the board and through some very nervous players. Casey went bogey free today and with Moving Day coming up, can be expected to shorten considerably from the current price. Should it be difficult to come from off the pace, then nobody up front makes much appeal at the moment but at 8-under and just four off the pace, all of Branden Grace, Richard Sterne, Marcel Siem and Thorbjorn Oleson have the ability and class to do something special here. Of those four, Grace and Siem make most appeal at the bigger prices and although both are proven winners, they do it in differing fashion. South African players have an extraordinary ability to shine in Majors, and naming just Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel is doing a disservice to a couple of others, notably the Daddy of them all Gary Player (who happens to be one of Grace's biggest fans) . Whatever the reason, the country continually produces top class players every season and Grace is no exception. Brilliant winner of four main Tour events in 2012, including the Dunhill Links, Grace seems to have lost the plot with his approach play this week but is scrambling very well, saving 8 from 11 missed greens, and therefore showing as 6th in putting. He has Billy Foster on the bag this week and should they gel, will form a formidable team over the weekend. We are trusting his game to return but if it does hit the form that finished top-7 in all three Qatar Swing events, the 32 will look big come Sunday. German Siem is an enigma, often being far too emotional for his own good. However, rather like Casey, his form pre-2012 can be looked at with a slight slant as he has become a much more rounded player. Certainly, Siem has come on a bundle since even his win in France in 2012, when sluicing through the field with a final round 67, and his win in Morocco was impressive more for the style rather than the literal form, playing iron shots and putting like a very confident player. Since then, a couple of decent results on the PGA Tour provided the self-belief to challenge in his home event in June, but his willingness to achieve probably cost him dear and his face told a story at every missed birdie oppertunity, in turn costing him shots. Ignoring the effort in France when he couldn't recover from a very poor first round, Siem proved in Texas that he could play in windy conditions where only a treble-bogey cost him a top-5 and he should be expecting to improve his only decent effort here, a 29th last season. Another who is finding greens off solid driving, he too will need to improve his putting, but is well worth the chance at 44 on Betfair. Just a quick mention for Soren Kjeldsen who will enjoy tougher conditions and looks huge at 100-1+ given solid course form and recent efforts of 8th and 18th but for now take Siem and Grace on the machine to make a profit combined, but with Casey, he looks in the mood and form to go to the wire, so take the four places on offer. The oppertunity is also there to back all three for a top-10 finish with Casey in particular looking huge at 3-1 although at the prices all three can be backed with one making a small profit.
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