Russian Open

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3-2; +5.56pts  (system plays: 0-1-0) 

No round 1 plays.

Round 2 play (4pts):

Soren Hansen to beat Mikael Lundberg +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 7
Opposing Lundberg even though is a Russian Open specialist - in the last five Russian Opens he has finished 11th-1st-3rd-dnp-1st. The problem is that those were between 2004 and 2008, at Moscow Country Club (whereas this week's event is Tseleevo Golf and Polo Club) and five years later he doesn't look a player who could win even in Russia. He is already in 68th place, eight shots off the pace after the 1st round. Hansen only returned to the Tour a few months ago after an 11-month injury layoff and while he is still far from his best, he has finished bheind Lundberg just once since April and is a perfect 8-0-0 h2h in rd2 over that period.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Scott Hend to beat Rikard Karlberg -111 @ Bet365  LOST by 2
Opposing Karlberg who has a two-shot lead after 36 holes. This is just the second time that he has been in this position on the European Tour - on the previous occasion he was leading, he had fallen outside the top-10 by the end of the next round. On that basis, I'll oppose him and with a player who ranks 8th in greens in regulation so far this week (Karlberg is 29th).

Matthew Baldwin to beat Michael Hoey -111 @ Bet365  LOST by 8
A matchup between two of the players in 2nd place. As in the previous matchup, the selection has hit a lot more greens in regulation than his opponent so far this week, but in this matchup both players are regular on the European Tour. As such, they have played in nine common events since March and Baldwin leads Hoey 7-2-0 in them. With Hoey failing to record a single top-30 finish in the last six, Baldwin looks far more likely to hold onto this leaderboard position.

Chris Paisley to beat Jamie Elson -120 @ Stan James  WON by 4
Paisley dominates this h2h matchup as well: 6-2-1. Together with an 11th place finish on this course two years ago, Paisley could be a player to move up the leaderboard tomorrow.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Lafeber tb Pilkadaris -110 (L)] 

Round 4 play (4pts):

Matthew Nixon to beat James Kingston +100 @ Stan James  WON by 11

Two players inside the top-5 and Kingston is the player being opposed from this position. In the last ten years, he has been inside the top-5 after 54 holes in 15 occasions on the European Tour ... he has broken 70 just twice from this position, averaging 71.67. Kingston has finished ahead of Nixon just once in eight common events since last year, so the value appears to be with the Englishman.