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Sergio Garcia - 2 points win @ 9-2 (Bet365)
Branden Grace - 1 point each-way @ 25-1 (Corals) Branden Grace - 6 points Top-10 @ 29-20 (Corals) Halfway in Qatar and the field is as compacted as ever with 19 players within three shots and 30 if you include those within four. Up front it is difficult at first to see how most of these in contention are going to go past both Martin Kaymer and Sergio Garcia and of the two the Spaniard is much stronger. Coming off a break, Sergio invariably starts his season in this event and with a record of four top-tens in five starts here has immediatly caught fire, improving on his first round by 3 shots, even in tougher conditions. In contrast to his market rival, Sergio has been speaking confidently about his game although given the chances he had, could easily be a couple clear. The issue is simply whether to remember the player that threw away many events due to poor putting, or recognise him as a man that thrives on confidence and whose game seems related to his mindset on his personal life. No doubt for me, with plenty of sub-70 weekend rounds in his Qatar career he looks the classiest on show and should be clear favourite. Whatever happens, he has to be backed at a generous 9-2. Martin Kaymer looks a dubious favourite. Of course the man is a winner but he has little course form to speak of and has already missed eleven greens in regulation. Given these are big putting surfaces, he is doing well to have a score that leads but he can't keep giving out negative vibes about the greens, admitted that he got lucky with a few today (as well as that eagle on day one), and simply can't be fancied to keep the game going well enough to get home in front. Kaymer's class is in no doubt but he may be waiting another year for the chance to win here. Rookie Ricardo Santos and Marcus Fraser are the other two leaders but severe doubts remain about Fraser's ability to get the job done in Europe, whilst Madeira victor Santos is clearly at home in the wind and has local connections. Nevertheless, he hit the front a few times today and fell back almost immediately. A come-from-behind winner on the Challenge Tour, he is likely to be more of a threat when starting the weekend from off the pace - one to watch definately after last weeks fourth place. Nike 'third string' Thorbjorn Olesen is clearly getting his game together with the new clubs and has taken to them far quicker than a certain Rory McIlroy. Even after that short-head defeat in Abu Dhabi, he and Justin Rose still look huge dangers here and at 8-1 and 25-1 respectively must have huge chances of outclassing the likes of the aforementioned Fraser, Lockerbie, Wall et al. Neither though appeal quite as much as Branden Grace and whilst he is the flavour-of-the-month it is all for good reason.
Grace needs no introduction. He was last weeks halfway mover and confirmed that confidence with a best of Sunday 65, and he has also been put against Coetzee in a matchbet. He is expected to improve again over the weekend and continue his run of strong payday efforts. Only three off the lead, there is plenty of evidence to show he relishes a fight and will not buckle, and at 25-1 (1/4 first 4) this four-time winner isr more appealling at the price than the likes of Casey (yet to prove his play over four rounds), Rose (disappointing today and now chasing his game) and Campbell (great to see him back but is he really up to winning in this grade again? Possibly but not here.). He is also the top-10 bet of this stage at a price of 29-20, given he will be finishing much better than most above or around him. If circumstances dictate there will be further plays tomorrow, but for now the current bets do look bigger than they ought to be.
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