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TOMMY FLEETWOOD - BACK 1.25 POINTS @ 110 (BETFAIR) JOOST LUITEN - BACK 0.80 POINTS @ 170 (BETFAIR) SOREN KJELDSEN - BACK 2.5 POINTS @ 55 (BETFAIR) ALL THREE PLAYERS INDIVIDUALLY - LAY (KEEP IN PLAY) 6 POINTS @ 16 TOMMY FLEETWOOD - TOP 10 - 3 POINTS @ 9-2 (CORALS) ALEJANDRO CANIZARES - TOP 10- 3 POINTS @ 4-1 (CORALS) Only 2008 victor Alvaro Quiros went into the weekend in the final group, and with Shane Lowry winning last seasons event from 5 back at the halfway stage it is very possible that a number of players will launch forwards over the weekend. Allied to a weak leaderboard of golfers that find it hard to win (even Quiros is unreliable despite this being his favourite part of the world and now his home), it is well worth getting with a trio of big-priced runners, even if only to bag a profit as they attck the course and shorten. First up is Tommy Fleetwood, a young golfer who is certain to win more events over the next few years. Fleetwood showed definate promise throughout his first season and came into the second half of 2013 having had chances but not quite putting four rounds together. His much deserved win at Gleneagles has been the spur to lift his game on again and recent top-10s at Crans and at the Dunhill Links gave him enough confidence to play extremely well late on at the Seve Trophy last week. Whilst some of his driving was a touch off-kilter in Paris, his victory over Joost Luiten came courtesy of some excellent approach play and incredible putting and whilst he hasn't quite taken advantage of his chances thus far, he can be expected to rise up the board as the evnt progresses. Fleetwood is exactly the right type for this tournament, attacking and with a real confidence on the greens, and whilst he threw in a trio of costly bogies mid-round today, fought back well to cancel those out on his back-nine. There is a danger that he will start to tire as the season draws to a close, looks far too overpriced at 110 on 'the machine' and at 9-2 to grab a place on the front page. Fleetwood's Seve defeat of three-time Euro victor Luiten doesn't put me off the latter one bit, and the current quote of 140 is clearly wrong. Few players came into the event in better form and having won twice already in 2013, the current RTD number 11 will be keen to show he is in the big time for good. The Dutchman hasn't had that much luck recently and could easily have won either the Irish or Welsh events with a roll of the ball, whilst his 24th at the Dunhill Links disguises excellent play over the first three days - he simply could not get the ball to drop on the Sunday, often leaving it inches from the hole. It sometimes becomes a concern when the putting drops standards for a few events but one double-bogey cost him 15 places on the halfwaty leaderboard, he is too good to be languishing mid-table and is yet another whose game suits the course, having been runner-up in 2010 with a weeknd 65/69. It shouldn't take much for him to shorten from his current price and he does go off three hours before the leaders. Final selection is hard-to-win-with Soren Kjeldsen who is just four off the pace but trading at 55. The Dane hasn't won for four years but often gets himself in a challenging position perhaps a bit too early and recent form (8th in France and at the KLM, and 3rd in Wales) does show him to be a better player as the course gets tougher. Kjeldsen isn't particuarlarly suited to a smash-and-grab track, but is saving shots all over the track and is a far far better player than his current ranking of 82nd for GIR, often finishing events listed in the top 20. Should he return to that quality iron play, he is expected to make a move on 'easy' Saturday and even if the move doesn't arrive till Payday, recent final rounds of 65/66/65 bode very well for a shortening of the price. There are cases to be made for the likes of Fernandez-Castano and Alejandro Canizares, the latter just 5 off the pace and yet triple-figures but they can't all be backed and the trio of confirmed bets look tailor-made for a possible weekend rush.
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