Nordea Masters

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Alexander Noren to beat Francesco Molinari - 7.5 points @ 10-11 (General)

Noren returns to his home course with expectation in his game. Winner by seven shots two years ago, having been eleven clear at the start of the final day, the Swede can expect a hero's reception as he bids to return consistency to his game round a course he knows inside-out. A very respectable tenth when defending last season, his cause wasn't helped with an opening 74, but two rounds of 66 restored his confidence and as he said earlier this week, 'It’s a bit like the greens at Wentworth last week – if you know where you want to be it makes it a lot easier.'. Given the same form players turn up each year at Wentworth, it is worth heeding Noren's advice and going with proven course form. Three top-tens this year set him up nicely for this return to Stockholm, and whilst his outright price may be a tad on the short side, he should be finishing ahead of this week's market rival.

Molinari's game is well known. He favours accuracy over length, not entirely suited too this course, and he doesn't much like being in front for too long! He'll always fire in plenty of top-tens and when on-song, has an approach game to rival anyones. However, as shown last weekend, he is extremely fragile at times and crucially has no experience of this long course, where he will be forced to fire in longer approach shots to keep up with the front of the field. There looks to be little to suit the Italian's game this week and given their respective knowledge of the track, and respecting everything Noren says, there is only one play here.    

Mikko Ilonen to beat Peter Uilhein and Jonas Blixt - 3 points @ 6-4 (Skybet)

Former US Amateur star Uilhien may well be flying and both he and Blixt have the length to trouble the Finn, but Ilonen is a winner-in-waiting and after a 3rd place finish last season, can improve again on some tremendous 2013 form to go very close here this week.

Ilonen has been showing bits and pieces over the past couple of years but has found consistency now, and after chasing Marcel Siem all the way in Morocco, finished runner-up to the very in-form Brett Rumford in China. Last week's 12th at Wentworth was further evidence of his wellbeing (a second round 76 costing him dear) and with his putting now a thing of beauty and ranking no worse than 4th in the last four finishes, he can be expected to match last seasons bronze medal at worst. Ilonen's approach play has been excellent to the eye (and better than the stats suggest) and whilst he couldn't capatalise on a lead at halfway in China, his game is in top shape and once again, experience of the track is expected to prove crucial. there is 10-11 in a single over the American, but I'm happy to add Blixt and take the bigger price.

Titeleist man Uilhien is finally realising his potential, with a win in Madeira the result of some excellent finishes in South Africa and Spain. He clearly has the bit between his teeth and finished well at Wentworth to finish alongside his market rival. Crucially, whilst both these players are in top form, Ilonen has the knowledge of the greens and that may well tip the balance in his favour, especially if we were to get the unpredictable Scandanavian weather. One to watch in a big way, but perhaps this is a week to watch and learn.

Blixt was quietly fancied here last season (interestingly alongside Broberg) but flopped when missing the cut. Showing huge promise for a while, his 3rd at the 2012 Byron Nelson preceded a play-off victory at the Frys Open, both on the main PGA Tour. That would suggest he actually carries the best form of any of these, but he hasn't quite kicked on in the manner expected with just one top-12 (in Texas last week) to show for his efforts. These young players often 'go missing' for a year or two after a flying season and Blixt certainly has enough in him to return to winning ways. His 2013 form, however, suggests he is some way short of the current play of both Ilonen and Uilhein, and he is first to scratch from this match.