|
THOMAS BJORN - BACK 6 points @ 14 MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ - BACK 5 points @ 17 BJORN AND JIMENEZ - LAY 15 POINTS @ 4 BJORN AND JIMENEZ - LAY 10 POINTS @ 2 At the start of the event, there were only two players that I would believe would be 8-13 going into Payday, and they are both well in contention. Neither name would have been Joost Luiten, however, and it is hard to make a cse for backing him at such a short price. Luiten is playing very well, and put up on the Betfair Golf page as a bet on current form, respect is due. However, whilst injury has had a lot to say, one win from over 100 starts is not a greta return and this is an event that can throw up huge spectrums of scores - local ante-post fav Wiesbereger has struggled on the back-9 for two days now, giving plenty of shots away, whilst last year top-class Thobjorn Olesen threw a three-shot overnight lead away. Behind the Dutchman, there can't be much confidence in the handful of inexperienced and non-winners that litter the top-ten, and so I'll return to the two players hinted at the top of the page. Compared to the single win by the current leader, Thomas Bjorn and Miguel Angel Jimenez have 32 main Tour wins between them and their experience of pressure and final day tactics will eb a huge boon, easily enough to overcome a 5 and 6 shot deficit should the leader falter in any way. Bjorn has been slow to rise this season but he caught the eye last week at the Nordea, finishing on the heels of the impressive leaders and he is a player to keep on side when he is in form. Again, slow to start this week, in his words 'plodding along' he came alive today with a stunning best of round 64, rushing through the field with a 6-under back-nine. Considering he wasn't actually that accurate with his approach play, the score is even more stunning and he has plenty of form when backing up a low one with another - most notably when winning his last event, in Switzerland, with a 66/62 weekend. Unfortunately the bad weather that was forecast does not look like coming in till after the finish but the tougher the conditions, the more it will suit Bjorn and he is the first in the trading plan. Jimenez has been playing extremely well since a six-month lay -off and was one of my three original fancies for the event (alongside Bjorn and Horsey). 4th and 14th in his last two starts it was hard to crab his credentials in this class, given he looked certain to improve on two top-15 finishes in the last two events here in better class. His current score of 10-under does not indicate his play, having left at least 8 shots on the course, missing very makeable birdie putts. As he gets older, that loss of putting form is a concern but you don't win that many events without the ability to finish, and whilst 6 behind the lead, he is only 3 off second and should the 10-footers start to drop, he would easily set a score of 16 or 17-under in the clubhouse. Both veterans look worth backing on the exchanges, although the offer of 1/5 odds first 3 is very tempting too - this is a tough finish and the younger brigade may struggle to chase any decent score. Back both and lay them back for a profit and a free bet - they should be the main movers in the market come halfway and won't get beaten through nerves.
|
