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Tommy Fleetwood to beat Matteo Manassero - 5 points at Evens (Sportingbet)

I wanted to get with American Brooks Koepka in some way but the oddsmakers have him tightly matched. Instead, another improving youngster can teach his rival a lesson.

Whilst the young Italian has looked destined for the very top for a number of years, his play has stalled completely recently. The win at Wentworth in May was a display of sheer class and looked like the spur to another step up the grading ladder. However, things haven't quite gone to plan and his efforts look decidedly average for the quality that he possesses.

Matty said recently that he was 'golfed-out' and needed the break from mid-August to his return at Crans last week, but I would wonder if it was more the awful run of form of 57/mc/53/72 that prompted the rest, the higher class of event accepted. He spoke confidently before the start last week but on a course that should have suited his style of play, accurate and requires good putting, he was eventually well beaten into 34th and illustrated perfectly the downfall in his iron play. A quick look at the stats reveals that he has gone from finding 72% of greens in reg, to only 67% thus far this year. When combined with the accuracy off the tee dropping by over 8%, it is clear that the work on his frame to ensure length, has not gelled with his natural game. Mannassero can hit form at any time, but on recent evidence you could not bet on it being this week, in Holland, where he only has a best of 26th to show for two efforts.

Englishman and Challenge Tour rankings winner Fleetwood is a 'proper' player. By that, I mean he has no frills, no flashy element to his game, he is simply very good. Outstanding as an amateur, he worked his way through the Challenge Tour, rising from 48th in 2010 to number one a year later with a win, two 2nds, and further top-10s. His first season on Tour, in 2012, was predictably tough but a last-ditch top-10 kept his card although he continually caught the eye of those who look deeper into the final leaderboards. Decent pre-cut rounds at Andalucía, Madeira, Italian BMW, and three good rounds here at the KLM (although a different track) all showed promise and that has all come to fruition in 2013.

Fleetwood again caught the eye early in the season with two good rounds at the Alfred Dunhill before four top-15 places in a month. A run of very solid efforts were rewarded with that play-off win in the high class Johnnie Walker and whilst the missed-cut in Wales is easily excused, he bounced back with a top-10 in Switzerland last week and a very solid set of stats. His ability to act here is not really a question and he will take huge confidence from last season when eventually finishing 17th at Hilversum.

Very simply, at the moment Fleetwood is going forwards and in flying form whilst the Italian has a lot of questions to answer. The fella from Southport should be not be outsider here on all recent evidence.