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Lay Damien McGrane - 10 points @ 3.0 (Betfair) Lay Damien McGrane - 10 points @ 1.8 (Betfair) On current bets McGrane +48 points - Bets already backed and laid listed below Saturday's third round really could not have been that much better. Aside from local hope Joost Luiten, Irishman Damien McGrane was the only player to shoot lower than 68 and from an easily available 60+, trades as short as 12.5 on Betfair. There was little doubt that the legend Jimenez was going to struggle somewhat in the conditions, but we certainly got help from the likes of the over-enthusiastic Larrazabal and more surprisingly Simon Dyson and Ross Fisher, whose excellent progress was halted with a late double-bogey. Saying that, playing conditions requested tidy, neat, sensible play and by the end of the round, those players were rewarded. Dutchman Luiten couldn't have been more obvious at the start of the event but looked terribly short on Thursday and whilst he was on the short-list last night, he looked about right at 12-1 given the pressure he will feel coming down the stretch with the nation on his back. Of course, he is proven in a finish but he needed a weather break in Austria to regather his thoughts and he will do very well to ignore the constant media tonight and pre-final round. Conditions are set to be similar to today and whilst I've tried to find something else in the field, I'm happy with McGrane as the main runner. Indeed, there is little in his play this week that puts me off. Currently, the Irishman is standing +48 points , whilst the field shows +4 points. Given his reluctance when in front, I'm adding a further lay at a short price. If he does move into the lead at some point, the suggestion is to exploit that price given the bet on the fixed odds. Either way, we can enjoy the vast majority of Sunday's play with the real possibility of a jackpot payout. Published 14/09/13 Brooks Koepka - 0.5 points each-way @ 50-1 (Spreadex) Damien McGrane - 0.5 points each-way @ 60-1 (Corals) Brooks Koepka - Back 1.5 points @ 55.0 (Betfair) Damien McGrane - Back 1.5 points @ 75.0 (Betfair) Place Lay both players - 7 points @ 10.0 (Betfair) Despite being a huge fan of Miguel Angel Jimenez, the current leader makes little appeal to hold on over the next couple of days. Sure, he is well deserving of a win given his form since recovering from injury, and he will take great inspiration from playing the final round at Crans with eventual winner and fellow 'oldie' Thomas Bjorn, but with rain and strong wind forecast, he will not enjoy conditions and has to be opposed at a best of 7-2 especially given his under-par efforts during last weekend when also in contention. Value comments can also apply to Simon Dyson, whose form in Holland speaks volumes and is another to have found his form lately. However, 5-1 best in a field where 19 players are separated by four shots has to be ignored given he hasn't tasted victory for a while. Instead, take a pop at a couple of bigger prices, both of whom are in form and proven with forecast conditions. Brooks Koepka is beginning to catch the eye of everyone on the main Tour. Three time winner on the Challenge Tour this year, that included a superb performance at the Scottish Hydro, in horrendous conditions. His ability from the rough there was on a different level to his opponents and whilst it is risky taking on such an inexperienced player in such a field, he has settled into life on the European Tour. 12th in the Scottish Open, top-20 in Wales and 7th last week at Crans, Koepka is one of the form players this week. Whilst he hasn't played in Holland before, he is showing enough ability to put him on par with any of the younger brigade and crucially is improving his putting week-on-week on these more luxurious greens. The American found 15 greens in reg yesterday and really could have been at least a couple of shots better. His play is continually improving and recent weekend rounds show no signs of fading towards the line - he could be the 'real deal'. Irishman Damian McGrane is another to have not won for an age. Indeed, his only win was the 2008 China Open when he beat the then promising Oliver Wilson down the stretch. He'll never be one to back when clear, as he has shown a few times but a shortish course, where accuracy matters and whose game actually improves in bad weather, he has to be added at the price. McGrane actually led the event on Thursday until very late and whilst he was 5 shots worse on Friday, his game didn't reflect the chances he had. Always off and on with his game, he can still boast a few top-20s and a recent 6th in Wales was very decent on a course that doesn't play to his strengths. Of course, his form here is excellent, reading 3/mc/20/4 and he has plenty of rounds of 68 and better. There is a trend for players to arrive late and fast on a Sunday, nicking a place but never in contention and as such, there was doubt as to exactly how to play these two. The advice is to get them on both exchange and fixed odds, as a charge from a few is almost certain. If we can get them 'done' early doors, the fixed odds will run free. That may not be a perfect system, but I'm happy with it given the way this event looks. Published 13/09/13 Tommy Fleetwood - 0.50 points ew 1234 @ 80-1 (Stan James) A quick first I-r bet with Fleetwood. Much of his form is listed on the matchup page, but he certainly shouldn't be twice the price of the out-of-kilter Manessaro and far bigger than the likes of Ross Fisher, who hasn't won for an age. Apart from double-bogey at his opening hole yesterday, he scrambled well enough to think he'll come on for that opening round and finished at Hilversum last year with a 66/68. He won't mind rain, unlike current leader Jimenez, and may start this afternoon just 5 or 6 off a top-5. On the cut-line at the moment, that looks worse than it actually is and given his confidence after that recent win and top-10 last week, he is expected to be far shorter come the weekend. I would have liked to get with him on Betfair but, again, there is little there in-running, and we may miss the boat if waiting.
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