Italian Open

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Brooks Koepka to beat Nicolas Colsaerts  7.5 points @ 20-19 (Betwin) Evens (Corals)

A number of reasons why the improving American can beat the more established star.

Koepka comes here genuinely looking to move closer to the top-50 and qualification for the RTD finale and if he doesn't make it this season, he is almost certain to do it sooner rather than later.

Winning three events in the same season on the Challenge Tour, Koepka gained automatic graduation to the main circuit, and has not let anyone down. He hasn't just won though - wins by seven, ten and three shots (in appalling conditions) showed that he was on another level and recent 12th in the Scottish Open, 18th in Wales and 7th at Crans are indications of his talent. Unlike many graduates, has not found the step up in class too much to handle, and if these results on 'first looks' are not enough, he had the temerity to win Open qualifying at Sunningdale.

There is no issues with Koepka who gagged up last time out in Italy, he will have be of no disadvantage off the tee unlike many of Colsaerts oppos in this market and can improve his putting as the weeks go on.

The big Belgian has problems. Whilst he has an impressive four top-5s in Italy, he is becoming increasingly reliant on his long driving. When he misses the fairways as he has been doing (frequently ranking out of the top-50 in that regard) he has not been able to find much in the way of recovery.  Top-10 in the US and Scottish Opens are fine but they stand out against three missed-cuts and that withdrawal last week. Granted, there are no horrendous rounds there, but the stats are awful and he cannot have any confidence coming into this week, topped with pulling out of the KLM with flu. As said, he has no advantage over Koepka with the driver and therefore the par-fives and overall has little to recommend him.

In terms of current form and wellbeing, this is one of the matchup bets of the season.