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 Edoardo Molinari to beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 8 points @ Evens (Pinnacle) (10-11 general)

Whilst it is potentially dangerous to put a lot of happy eggs in yer proverbial shopping trolley, Molinari has huge claims to the jewelled dagger this week and although a slight 'bounce' factor is to be feared there is very little downside in getting with him in most markets over the next few weeks, starting now.

The simple facts first. 'Dodo' is a winner, five times on the Challenge Tour (three wins in 2009 from the likes of Nicolas Colsaerts), and twice on the European Tour as well as a win in the Dunlop Pheonix in Japan and the World Cup (alongside his higher-ranked brother Francesco). It was the nature of the Euro wins that caught the eye of most golf punters, thrashing Darren Clarke at Loch Lomond in horrendous conditions before needing to birdie his final three holes to overcome a Clubhouse bound Brett Rumford. The snaking putt on 17 proved to be one of the most replayed shots of the year, boosting his rightful claim to a Ryder Cup wildcard pick, where he showed a quality temperament on singles day, only tying his match against Rickie Fowler due to the American's brave putt on 18. At every stage of that wonderful 2010, the Italian showed a spirit and a desire to improve and win further and he was in every notebook I had at least.

Things didn't go to plan in 2011, but in typical Dodo fashion, he saw his PGA exploits as a 'positive experience' although it's very possible that the rise in status took time to get used to and it certainly hasn't helped that the following year he openly spoke about a wrist injury needing attention and surgery. Progress has been slow since with just mid-table finishes to show for his efforts and he eventually took the decision to change coaches from Dennis Pugh to the coach of Tiger Woods, Sean Foley, and what a relevation!

It cannot be any coincidence that the Woods swing has taken time to perfect, and whilst Molinari will of course never be in that class, his recent runner-up in the shortened Malaysian Open shows what Foley is capable of. Although last weeks effort looks to have come out of the blue, the previous couple of missed cuts contained rounds of 70/71/72 twice, not challenging but also not horrendous by any means and not for a player with huge self-belief and talent.

Molinari's comments that 'I'm disappointed because I had a lot of chances on the back nine' and his ire at missing the 18th fairway bode extremely well for his future progress, and combined with the desire to win, the ability to play under pressure and quality with the flat stick make him much more an appealing player to follow than his higher-rated brother et al. The 6th place finish here last season is all the more meritous knowing that he was in pain and knowing that the operation was a neccessity, and he is fully expected to kick-on now and recover some missed oppertunities. He has every reason to go close this week and certainly to beat his matchup rival.

Unusually in a matchbet, oppo Rafael Cabrera-Bello is a very likeable player and certainly one who will improve over the next couple of years. Another with multiple wins (two on each of the Challenge and Euro), his best moment came when winning the Dubai Desert Classic in 2012 beating Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy, and on that form he rates an outstanding prospect. He understandably hasn't quite lived up to that form and although top-25 in six from seven events this year, hasn't quite convinced that he is a winner-in-waiting. Rafa hasn't been able to show enough consistency when in a position to challenge and that may be down to pressure of qualifying for The Masters, for which this is his final chance. The feeling is that he will play a tad better when away from all that and on a course where he had a poor first effort in 2011 finishing 44th, it's hard to see him beating a near-peak Molinari.  

On a course that rewards solid accurate play with an ability to putt well, the Italian looks to hold all the aces.

'The swing changes are starting to pay off which is surprising because I thought it would take a lot longer' - could this pupil of Sean Foley now follow in the footsteps of Tiger Woods and Justin Rose? Very possibly.