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Michael Hoey - Top-10 - 4 points @ 4.9 (Betfair) 7-2 (Corals) Michael Hoey - Top-5 - 1 point @ 16.5 (Betfair) Pablo Larrazabal - Back - 4 points @ 7.0 (Betfair) Pablo Larrazabal - Lay - 8 points @ 3.0 (Betfair) Okay, the easy part first. Anyone contemplating backing halfway leader Marcel Siem at sub 6-4 needs a good talking to. Whilst impressive on the stats so far this week with top-12 rankings in fairways found and greens in regulation, Siem has a history of being untrustworthy in the mix, more so due to his suspect temperament than talent. Twice winner on Tour, Siem had an excellent 2012, topping consistent efforts with a come-again win in France and setting him up for a chance of qualifying for The Masters in April. Results this year haven't been fantastic but he has been turned on by the Royal Palace's private course and is well on his way to a win that would set him up for Augusta. However (there is always an 'however') the afore-mentioned temperament is something that the German will need to control under extreme pressure and probably against a strong, swirling wind that nobody in any meteorological office seems able to predict. Such was the difficulty of the wind that morning players on Thursday were averaging around four shots worse than their afternoon counterparts, whilst the second round saw scores ranging from 64 to mid-high 70s, and that was just the later golfers. However strong the leader's play so far with just four missed fairways, he has still had to scramble from eleven missed greens and throughout his playing history, he has shown that he finds it hard to control his state of mind when things inevitably do go awry. Two scenarios are very possible - either the wind relents for the early players and they go low whilst the leaders struggle, or the wind dies down later in the day making it even more of a pressure test of putting. For neither does a price of 11-8 about a man who got visibly frustrated halfway through his second round just for missing an eagle chance make any appeal whatsoever. The trouble with opposing Siem with any of the next obvious contenders is their current price. 2011 winner David Horsey has looked very good at times throughout the last year and this week has shown serious PMA (positive mental attitude) returning to the course of his best win, but he cannot justify a price of 9-2 given that he was extremely nervous throughout the last few holes a couple of years ago. He appeals more than the leader but not enough to play. Pablo Larrazabal is fun to watch and can shoot low any time he likes. Current form is very decent, with closing 17th and 9th the last two events and he had an excellent weekend here last season, eventually finishing 9th. Another who is shooting birdies for fun round this course he can be backed coupled with Horsey at a similar price than the leader and given his ability to finish an event attacking all the way, is certainly going to be fun to watch. He looks happy with his game (a key element to Pablo's efforts) and if he starts the weekend in similar fashion to today (ten birdies with six very early in his round), he will be aside the leader quickly. He is very tempting given that par was a good score on windy Thursday, he believes he is 'really' just one off the pace and he will be put in the plan as a back-to-lay in the hope of a similar start. We are at the behest of the wind so judging the merits of those between 6-under and 1-under is difficult but it looks worth taking the chance of a few shekels on defending Champion Michael Hoey to rush up the leaderboard over the weekend. Hoey looks a long way behind but he will be one that fancies his chances if the wind blows and whilst conditions were not horrendous a year ago, he played an almost perfect game in shooting 65/65, rising from 30th at halfway to win by 3. He starts this weekend behind by one more shot and in 24th position but, given he has similar thoughts to Horsey and that he is well proven in windy, linksy conditions with wins at the Alfred Dunhill Links and Madeira, there was a thought to get with him at 310 on Betfair, or 200-1 with Corals in the outright market. He probably has too much to do on his current form there but looks massive at 7-2 to get a place on the first page as he is currently just 3 shots off 10th place and is one of only ten or so players that could confidently be predicted to move forwards over the weekend.
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