|
GRAEME STORM - 1.5 POINTS @ 75 (BETFAIR) SOREN KJELDSEN - 2.5 POINTS @ 28 (BETFAIR) LAY BOTH PLAYERS - 6 POINTS @ 7 (BETFAIR) LAY BOTH PLAYERS - 6 POINTS @ 3 (BETFAIR) If the Open de France looked diffcult at halfway, late dropped shots by all the leaders means that even going into payday, there are 15 players within 3 shots with 3 more within 4. The difficulty of the final few holes cannot be underestimated, and only Richard Sterne made any inroads across those holes whilst experienced winners Thomas Bjorn shot 4-over, Stephen Gallacher 3-over and Simon Dyson 2-over just to name three. Indeed, rather than Moving Day, the scores went backward, and it can only get harder. As far as ability to come from off the pace, last year Frani Molinari nearly came from 6 shots back after a brilliant 64 (winner Siem needed a 67 to beat him by a shot), whilst Thomas Levet and Thorbjorn Oleson were 3 and 4 shots back when finishing in the top two in 2011. Given the difficulty of the closing stretch, holes ranked 2/5/6/1 so far this week and that the course cannot play easier than today (that was still tough) it could be worth paying attention to the more accurate players starting an hour or so before the leaders and perhaps backing them as they come to closing out their rounds - the pressure put on any leader as they reach the 15th will surely lead to errors as they try to defend against loose shots. It looks a real struggle but in the end, the advice is to back two course specialists to continue to find the fairways and greens and hope they do enough to sit comfortably in the clubhouse where we can lay and pray! First up has to be Graeme Storm at a ludicrous 75. I admit to being seduced by Storm in a lot of markets this week, including outright ante-post at a huge three-figures but I'll be happy to go in again at the current price. The Englishman hasn't won a main Tour event since this one in 2007, but his record here suggests that this is one of his favourite tracks and although he was disappointed with today's 73 he is finding plenty of greens off an accuracy game steady in the top-30s. Putting will always be the difference when many players are playing well, but a Sunday at Le Golf National will put pressure on green-finding and Storm can be trusted to do that job at least. Finishes here of 21/1/21/13/11/11 through 2006-2011 prove he can finish an event here and any move forward will move his price dramatically. I trust Storm to return to the quality of his opening two rounds and to be right there midway through the round. Backing up is yet another player for who winning is not easy. Dane Soren Kjeldsen looked like a player going places when winning the Volvo Masters and Open de Andelucia in 2008/2009 and his win at Valderrama at least proved he was a man for accuracy and had the tenacity for a tough course. Things haven't gone swimmingly since but he does pop up almost without notice, as when popping in five top-10s including four top-5 places early in 2012. Again, 2013 isn't spectacular but there looks to be progression in his form (confirmed by his thoughts on his website) with a couple of top-20s in Sweden and Ireland, and it is no shock that he has found some more form here in France, where his record reads six top-20s including 7/13/9 in the last five years. Soren will want to forget the start to Saturday's round, where he was 4-over through 11, but he fought back well, coming home 2-under for the last 5, further testament to his liking of a tough track. You have to go way back for his final round 64 (1998), but a 69 in each of his last two final rounds here will be good enough to promote him up the board tomorrow and again, it is hoped that accuracy over strength will again win the day.
|
