European Masters

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1-5; -12.12pts  (system plays: 0-0-2) 

Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated):

Graeme Storm to beat Eddie Pepperell -120 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
Course experience is very important on this mountainous course despite the course changes this year. Pepperell is making his debut whereas Storm has played here in seven of the last eight years and missed the cut just once. Coming off a 6th place finish in the Wales Open, he looks in better form than Pepperell whose last top-10 finish was in May.

Gregory Bourdy to beat John Parry -120 @ 5Dimes [2pts]  WON by 8
Bourdy is also in good form having won last week's event. Winning the previous week is not a concern in this event - in the last three years, the winner here had finished 6th, 1st and 3rd the previous week. He also dominates this matchup 42-16-3 and looks a decent price to continue his record against the Englishman.

Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Kiradech Aphibarnrat -111 @ Bet365 [2pts]  LOST by 6
Another matchup with good course and recent form for one player in particular. Gonzalez has been a regular here since 1999, winning this event in 2001. With a 2nd place finish at Gleneagles two weeks ago, he could be one to watch this week. Aphibarnrat finished 131st on his course debut last year and finished 144th last week with rounds of 75-84 in the Wales Open, so he looks one to oppose this week.

No round 2 plays.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Thomas Bjorn -133 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 2

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to beat Brett Rumford -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 2

Brooks Koepka to beat Tommy Fleetwood -125 @ Stan James  TIED

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Tullo tb Finch -125 (T); Jaidee tb Rumford -110 (T)] 

Round 4 play (2pts):

Tommy Fleetwood to beat Victor Dubuisson -111 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
Fleetwood has hit the ball further and straighter off the tee than Dubuisson so far this week and hit more greens - he ranks 2nd in this category so far this week - so he is certainly playing well enough to win for the second time in three weeks. This will be the first time that Dubuisson has started the final round of a Tour event in the last group, so he will be under considerable pressure. Fleetwood looks the clear favourite in this matchup to me.