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Shane Lowry to beat Victor Dubuisson and Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 4 points @ 15-8 (skybet)

With little recent form either on the Tour or indeed at El Saler, it looks prudent to row along with the view that this shortish, coastal course will favour those with form in windy conditions, that are accurate rather than bombers off the tee, and crucially that handle undulating greens. In that respect, I've gone along with the comparison with Madeira and Oitavos and similar tracks.

Unfortunately, the current match-ups only offer one attractive bet with Shane Lowry unexpectedly the outsider in the trio containing Victor Dubuisson and Rafa Cabrera Bello.

Lowry is improving year on year and returns 'home' after a spell on the PGA Tour where he reached the final 16 of the World Matchplay before finishing a four week spell with a top-20 in Texas. The matchplay is generally insignificant for the purposes of 72-hole play, but in beating Rory McIlroy in particular, and thrashing Carl Pettersson, his confidence will have risen even further just six months after his first 'proper' win in Portugal. In between, he shot 67 in qualifying for the Honda Classic but missed out by one shot and there is no doubt that he will be making his move over the pond sooner rather than later.

For matchbet purposes, he has a very decent profile. His game is well suited to windy conditions and with his first win, as an amateur, being in horrendous conditions at the Irish Open, as well as a 16th in Portugal the year before his victory, he holds genuine claims to the title in conditions he will relish. Form in Spain is not shabby either with five top-20 finishes in three years, containing three top-10s.

Dubuisson can be said to be a winner-in-waiting after numerous top finishes in the last couple of seasons. Top-10 in the Avantha and in Qatar before last months top-5 in the shortened Maylasia Open all read very well in a field containing a few that will need to recover from exploits at The Masters, but his form in Spain is shocking and he has so far just fallen short of that vital win, so much so that his price is hard to understand.

Cabrera-Bello, unable to cope with the wind and pressure of Masters qualification at Morocco is certainly better than current form but he doesn't seem to have kicked-on from last season and it's hard to think that this type of track will suit him at the moment. Rafa's putting continues to detract from decent approach play and he may ask too much of himself if missing fairways and greens here this week. In nothing like the form of the Dubai win of 2012, it may take time for the Spaniard to get him game spot on, certainly long enough to allow better scrambler Lowry to finish in front.

Whilst at first this looks a reasonably tough call, Lowry holds very strong claims on a track that will almost definitely suit, whilst his rivals have a bit to prove in these conditions. Enough of an advantage to think there is no way he should be 15-8 outsider of three.