Open de Espana

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5-2; +6.00pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Anders Hansen to beat David Horsey -105 @ Bet365  LOST by 1
Both players showed good form when the European Tour was last in action, but this is still a matchup dominated by the Dane: he leads Horsey 14-5 h2h since the start of last year and in terms of the pre-weekend rounds, Hansen leads Horsey 26-7-5 over the same period. So, despite the recent good form of both players, I'll back the player ranked 200 places higher on the World Rankings at underdog odds.

Francesco Molinari to beat Matteo Manassero +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
A similar story in this matchup. Both showed decent form on the European Tour before the break ahead the Masters and the selection dominates the early round h2h data: Molinari leads Manassero 12-3-2 h2h in rd1 over the last 12 months. Although on a different course, Molinari is the defending champion and will be looking to continue a record of top-10 finishes in his last four visits to Spain. The chances appear good: he has played in 13 previous events in Spain and never finished outside the top-35.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Edoardo Molinari to beat Felipe Aguilar +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
2nd in greens in regulation and 1st in scrambling are very clear indicators that Molinari played very well in rd1, but didn't convert his chances other than when saving par. It meant that he didn't drop a shot on day one. Coming off three missed cuts, I'll gladly oppose Aguilar in rd2 as he finished the first day in the lead. He has only been in this once position once before on the European Tour: that was back in 2006 and finished the event, the St Omer Open, in 26th position that time.

Anders Hansen to beat David Horsey +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power]  WON by 3
Going back to the well with this play. Hansen finished just once shot behind Horsey today. I'm convinced that he is the better player so I'll back him again at better odds on day two.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Eddie Pepperell to beat Mortum Orum Madsen +105 @  Bet365  WON by 1

Round 4 plays (2pts):

David Horsey to beat David Howell +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James]  WON by 6
Both players in the top-5 and for both players this will be the fifth time that they have been in this position in the last three years. For Horsey, in the last four occasions, he has shot 68-67-69-69 and finished 2nd-1st-1st-2nd; for Howell, he has shots 73-72-71-71 and finished 8th-4th-5th-6th.

Raphael Jacquelin to beat Peter Uihlein -108 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, Bet365and BetVictor  WON by 2
A similar measure to report for this play. In the last three years, Jacquelin has started the final round in the top-5 on six occasions: he has finished 3rd-2nd-1st-4th-4th-3rd; for Uihlein, he has never been inside the top-5 at the start of a European Tour event, but over the same period on the lower European Challenge Tour, he has been in this situation five times in the last three years, but failed to break 70 any time and finished 12th-10th-4th-6th-18th on that lower Tour.