Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

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Joost Luiten  to beat Bernd Wiesberger - 5 points @ 10-11 (Betfred/Tote)

Although Austrian Wiesberger will surely win more events on Tour there is nothing to suggest that he is the equivalent of a rampant Joost (say it like 'toast') Luiten at the moment.

Seasonal form looks very similar but Bernd's form has dipped over the last few months and only a top-5 at the Johnnie Walker gives any hope to a strong effort here. Surround that with a couple of missed cuts and last weeks moderate 23rd and it sadly shines out, not enough to make him backable this week. Weisberger has dropped his standards of iron play and his short game leaves a lot to be desired at present, something that will need to be at peak around the more difficult of the three courses used this week.

Following his win in Indonesia, Bernd had major chances at Sweden, Austria, Germany and France but on each occasion showed a waywardness with his approach shots that hasn't been seen previously. Until that improves significantly, it is hard to see him challenging strongly at the business end of events and, of course, two missed-cuts in this event suggest Links golf on windy course is not for him.

In contrast, Dutchman Luiten has been consistently good since his first win of 2013 in Austria, where he proved far hungrier than his rivals including his matchup oppo this week. A break mid-round on Sunday settled his nerves and he has come on from that to record three top-10s and that famous win in his home nation a couple of weeks ago. Luiten has no worries about his current form and with much of the Dutch event played on Links style tracks over the years should have no qualms with this week now his game is back in top order.

Prepare to ignore much of Luiten's event form given his injury problems over the years but even steady rounds of sub-70 may well get the job done against a player who has broken 71 just once in six attempts and never managed to make shoot-out day.