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Set lays (current position Els +65 points) Ernie Els - Lay 10 points @ 2.5 Ernie Els - Lay 10 points @ 1.8 Already advised Ernie Els - Back 4 points @ 26 (Betfair) Ernie Els - Set Lay 5 points @ 8 (Betfair) Keep in running The Big Easy did a tremendous job yesterday in achieving his target price early on, eventually matched at 5.0 and lower. Currently standing at +65 points, there is great opportunity to set further lays for the most experienced of Links players and guarantee decent profits all round. The stats show that Ernie is missing fairways but recovering tremendously, finding the pins and holing the putts (his nemesis for the last couple of years), something he managed to do in the 2012 Open. Having said that, this is a tough leaderboard with claims set by many of the top-10 and anything less than a 65 will fail to do the job, whilst any missed 5-foot birdie attempt will feel like a bogey. Threats are all there. Previous winner Martin Kaymer was quiet this week and yet finds himself level with Els, whilst Joost Luiten looked like going clear until stumbling on his back-9 yesterday. The latter looks interesting at 8.4 but picking which player shoots lowest on the front nine, and therefore shortens up, is tough. Current leader Peter Ulhein looks too short at the moment ironically given his outstanding round at Kingsbarns on Friday and his amazing eagle on 18 yesterday (can he really follow all that with victory?), but claims are held by many. Perhaps the real value is big hitter Ricardo Gonzales, who is ranked 1st in GIR alongside 6th in putting. He is a tad unreliable in front, but he will get first run on those just one ahead and could easily trade at half his current price of 23/35 before the back-9. Simply, it is too difficult so exploit the position on Els with a couple of trades at short prices. He is one of just a handful to whom the market reacts strongly and if getting to the front at any stage will surely trade at the first lay at least. Posted 28/09/13 Ernie Els - Back 4 points @ 26 (Betfair) Ernie Els - Set Lay 5 points @ 8 (Betfair) Keep in running Apologies for the late advice but with Links specialists about to dominate the leaderboard, one bet stands out. The likes of leader Tom Lewis, Fleetwood, Donaldson and Hoey amongst others have taken advantage of benign conditions this week to rack up very low scores. They should all be right there as the conditions get slightly tougher over the weekend, and when they finally return to professional pin positions rather than the easy-to-get-at amateur ones. However, despite the threat of all of those and course lover Martin Kaymer, The Big Easy looks an excellent wager at the current 25-1 each-way or a similar price on Betfair. Known as a legend on the Links, Els comes here perfectly relaxed after a couple of days of easy playmaking and whilst he won't be the one to shoot the lights out (he commented yesterdays 65 felt like a 90 compared with some rounds of the day), he will be the one going forwards as the event warms up. Famous for his Open exploits, his perfection in the wind was perfectly demonstrated by his 2012 victory at Lytham, when overcoming a large deficit down the stretch. Yes, leader Scott did crumble, but Els knocked in quality iron play followed by superb putting, and if anyone thought that was his lot, easily held off Thomas Bjorn when winning in Germany. Recent form doesn't leap off the table but it is respectable all the same and Els can boast a huge number of top finishes in this event. He seems much more relaxed than for a long time and just five off the pace, can close in around the easy St.Andrews to at least to a price in which to make a profit. Up front the likes of Lewis and Fleetwood fit in perfectly with recent victors Dougherty, Hoey and Grace but their price has been and gone and if not on already they cannot be entertained at single figures despite their claims. Instead look to the experience of Els to give them a right fright down the stretch.
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