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Ricardo Santos - 0.75 points each-way @ 70-1 (Skybet/Corals) Scott Jamieson - 1 point each-way @ 50-1 (General) Ricardo Santos - 4 points top-10 @ 19-5 (Corals) Scott Jamieson - 4 points top-10 @ 3-1 (Corals) Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 4 points top-10 @ 16-5 (Corals) Steve Webster - 2 points top-10 @ 4-1 (Corals)
A decent and open halfway position with 20 players within four shots of leader Richard Sterne and 40-odd within six. This round a course that rewards long driving and birdies only and whilst there will be a filtering out of those less likely types (Doak, Harto, Keiffer), it is alomost certain that the Driver will be used a lot more off the tee as the poorer weather moves in and the field can probably be reduced to a maximum of twenty possible winners. Choosing from that 'short' list is tougher than usual given the leader is a proven winner but whilst Sterne did well to finish strongly today, there seems an advantage to earlier players and he hasn't put his head in front for years (injury or no). As such, expect those on 6 and 7-under to be flying early and at least one will be making a significant move. Nevertheless, a couple appeal at the prices and they will be a play as this track can launch a relative unknown into the big time. First up is the Portugese youngster Ricardo Santos. Many have written about the close links between the Portugese Open and this event and both Santos and Steve Webster appeal from the qualifiers. Santos has caught the eye of most this season taking a lead into the final round of Abu Dhabi, before finishing a respctable 22nd a week later. That doesn't tell quite the whole story and taking his 'best bits' of those rounds, he would certainly have been challenging to add to his win on the Challenge Tour and Madeira Open. It is noteworthy that in all his completed main Tour starts he has shot 6 rounds of 68 or under at the weekend and given he has far more wollop in his armoury than he has shown, as well as a much better putting game than thus far this week, he is well worth chancing to show continual improvement at the 70-1 put up by a couple of firms. He will also be a confident bet in the current top-ten market. In-form Webbo is reluctantly left out, simply as he never wins and really should have done even better the last month than three top-10s. As churlish as that is, he still does make a contribution to the column via the top-ten market as he is long off the tee, has been playing better this week than that 6-under score suggests, and crucially is off the pace where he does his best work. Another with low weekend rounds on the card he is in the perfect place to make a move whilst away from the spotlight. Had Rafa Cabrera-Bello not been defending his title he would have been a pick in the outright market rather than just the top-ten. He doesn't seem on top of his game at present but again has crucial course form and length to challenge over the next two rounds. The market here is very top-heavy with the star names but none have the words 'back me at silly prices' flashing and the likes of Cabrera-Bello are there to exploit this, especially given his last eight weekend rounds have been par and under. Last one for the list is Scott Jamieson, who looks huge at 3-1 for the first page of the board, and 50-1 for a player with a win, second and third second in the last six weeks is a tad insulting. Just five off the pace he had a dull level-par, no birdie or bogey, round today and will be frustrated that he couldn't repeat the eagle and several birds of his first 18 holes. Nevertheless, this is a player who, having shown immense promise in 2011, came from behind to win the shortened Nelson Mandela and took a five shot lead into the final round of the prestigious Volvo Champions. There may have been a reaction to that eventual loss (though no shame at all) with the following missed-cuts, but Qatar wouldn't have suited so is best forgotten. Struggling to find greens this week is a slight worry but it is hoped that his iron play will return to it's best and on 'moving day', the Scot is fully expected to reclaim his position in the top echelons of the field. Plenty of players up there but any will drop away as the length and pressure comes into play. Of course. the likes of Sergio, Westwood and Olesen must be respected but they have faults and the market doesn't take that into account. A decent team at a decent price to go to war with.
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