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Tournament Match Picks - European Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds:Matchups

 
 
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Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Nicolas Colsaerts - 3 points @ 21-10 (Bet365)

Henrik Stenson to beat  Branden Grace - 3 points @ Evens (Stan James)

 

The opener to another year and a cracking little event over a toughened course with rain-affected rough and narrow landing areas. Already the likes of hugely experienced Retief Goosen are saying that it is a different course to that of previous events, with the greens less holding and with more run-offs. This should place a premium of accuracy over length and it will be fascinating to see how the rejuvenated Ernie Els and Padraig Harrington play against the younger brigade. With rain forecast and good scrambling a must I do favour the older handful for win purposes.

 

Both players in this particular matchup have the potential to be multiple winners this year, but whilst the Belgian has the higher profile due not only to the win in the Matchplay but also a terrific run in last seasons Ryder Cup, he is tended to be overbet and has thrown away a couple of real chances to add to the Trophy cabinet. Famed for his length, he is bound to improve on a 2005 effort here which remains irrelevent now, but the tightening of the fairways and the emphasis on the short game doesn't strike as the ideal track.

In contrast, Olesen appeals as the sort to find major improvement over the next couple of seasons and he may as well start right now. 

From the brilliant training ground of the Nordic Tour (much more on that as the Challenge Tour previews commence), it didn't take long for the Dane to catch the eye in 2011 with a fast-finishing runner-up in the Alfred Dunhill and a top-ten the week later in the South African Open around this very course. As said, the course is a touch tougher now and everything about Olesen suggests he can handle it. With progressive form, including the win in Sicily and six further top-ten finishes he looks a much more tidy and reliable player than his opponent, although that slip in the final round at the Lyoness Open (should have won when miles clear) gives a slight doubt as to his current ability to finish the job. At just 23 that sort of mistake is easily forgiven and he will be expecting to take his new status in the game (15th in the RTD last season) through to a place on the next Ryder Cup squad. New clubs from quality sponsor Nike are a tad worrying as it may take him time to bed down, but he is talking well in interview and on-line and shouldn't be the complete outsider in this matchup.

 

Henrik Stenson is also fancied to show up very well having bounced back to form last season with progressive efforts before a win in the 2012 running of the South African Open. Seventh in the seasonal finale, the DP Championship, reads extremely well and gives some indication that his mind is now settled and he can concentrate on his game and not outside matters. Whilst he has no form here, he comes here with seven top-tens from eleven starts and is a man for whom confidence is the key looking likely to return to his place as a regular on the first page of the leaderboard, let alone being able to challenge for the top prizes such as the Nedbank and The Players again.

 

Stenson is put up against local hero Branden Grace, three-time winner on Tour last season including back-to-back wins at the Joburg and then in this event. That looks great on paper but this is now an entirely different test and his innaccuracy off the tee may find him out, that notwithstanding the huge pressure of national media interest and his first professional defence. That is enough to put off any huge expectations from the youngster and it may all be too much on his first outing this year.

 

Have a profitable season, folks!