British Open

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4-4; +0.58pts  (system plays: 1-3-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Webb Simpson to beat Francesco Molinari +102 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 4
Three missed cuts in five attempts does not augur well for Molinari. In fact, a record of three top-25 finishes in 18 Major Championships is not particularly good for a player 42nd in the World Rankings. Simpson is a Major Champion (2012 U.S. Open) and in his previous Open Championship start (2011, Royal St. George's) he finished 16th, so links golf should not be too daunting for the American, particularly given the calm conditions. In these conditions, Simpson looks likely continue his 5-1 h2h dominance over his Italian opponent in 2013, so there is value in these odds.

John Senden to beat Marc Warren -110 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 5
I'll oppose Warren who has the added pressure of being a home player as well as making his debut in this event. Senden has made the cut in four of his last five Open Championship and has missed the cut in just one Major since the start of 2011. Not really a player to side with to win an event such as this, but perfect for match bets.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Shane Lawry to beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello +107 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib]  TIED
Opposing Cabrera-Bello who lies 2nd after an opening 67. He has been in this position previously in a Major - he was 4th after the opening round of the 2010 U.S. Open - but he then shot 75-81-72 to finish 47th. So I'll certainly take these odds on links-specialist Lowry to take advantage tomorrow.

Bubba Watson to beat Dustin Johnson +100 @ Stan James  LOST by 1
Johnson finished the day just a shot behind Cabrera-Bello in 4th place, but despite that round and three consecutive top-15 finishes in this event, he struggles to convince me that he is a natural links player. Bubba's ball control should make him more likely to win this event and he has improved his finishing position in each successive appearance in this event. In better form than DJ, I'll back him to continue the form that sees him inside the top-15 for at least one more round.

John Senden to beat Marc Warren +112 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib]  WON by 4
Senden lost heavily in the 1st round version of this matchup, but he hit as many fairways as Warren and hit more greens than the Scot, so it appears rather unwarranted. With Warren inside the top-30 of just his second Major and Senden with a reputation for bouncing-back, these look attractive odds.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Duke bt Coetzee +102 (L)]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Tiger Woods to beat Lee Westwood -138 available generally  LOST by 2
It is a surprising that that, in the 12 times that these two players have been in the same pairing in the last five years, Westwood leads Tiger 7-4-1, but I still don't see him matching Tiger tomorrow. They finished in very different manners today - Westwood 3-over-par for the last six holes; Tiger 1-under-par - and Westwood has the weight of home expectations on his shoulders. It will be a struggle for him to remain in contention tomorrow.

Zach Johnson to beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello -125 @ Ladbrokes and Sportingbet  WON by 2
The same goes for Cabrera-Bello. Johnson has been very impressive so far this week and is on a run of six consecutive cuts made in this event. He should have enough experience to deal with the pressure of tomorrow and to beat a player whose best previous finish in a Major is 47th.

Jordan Spieth to beat Darren Clarke -1118 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  TIED
Two players in very different form. Spieth won last week's John Deere Classic to earn his place in this event and he has carried on this form to not just be 11th, but 2nd in greens in regulation so far this week. Clarke had missed four cuts in a row before this week and while, he did win this event two years ago, he previous top-40 finish in this event was back in 2005. Spieth has clearly learned links golf very quickly and so long as the weather remains good, he should still be able to beat Clarke even on this type of course.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Simpson tb Molinari -120 (L); Snedeker tb Cink -138 (W)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Hideki Matusyama to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez +100 @ Bet365  WON by 3
Difficult to see how Jimenez can bounce back from today's round, nothing went right for him and he is now outside the top-10 having started the day as the sole leader. Matsuyama would have been better-placed but for the one-shot penalty for slow-play. He was very unfortunate and it virtually ends his chances of victory, but he is a player in very good form and he is the type of player who would not be derailed by such an incident.

Stewart Cink to beat Shaun Lowry +150 @ BetVictor [available generally]  WON by 1
Two players out of contention so why should Cink be such a large price? He is a former Open Champion (2009) and in their seven previous common events, Cink has always shot the lower final round score.

Ken Duke to beat Gregory Bourdy +138 @ BetVictor, ToteSport and BetFred [available generally]  TIED
And the same in this matchup. Duke ranks inside the top-80 in the World Rankings (Bourdy is 170th) and won on the PGA Tour last month. The value is clearly with Duke at these odds.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Pettersson tb Lawrie +108 (L)]