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Lay Thomas Bjorn 10 points @ 2.5 (betfair) Lay Joost Luiten 10 points @ 5 (Betfair) We may have had to wait till between 4.40 and 5.59pm (how good is this odds-tracker?) but Thomas Bjorn was eventually matched at 7.0 and under and, after a best-of-the-day 65 sits just one shot off the pace. In truth I was slightly disappointed as he is still behind halfway leader Ernie Els despite The Open champ showing signs of being off-key with his putter, but he is in the perfect position to attack the easier birdie holes before the final group and is actually still too big at over 8.0. A lot will depend on the weather tomorrow. Rain is expected but they waited for the calm today and it became a birdie-fest. If thats happens again then anyone from as far back as 12-under can post a 64 and wait in the 'house'. As far as the bet on Luiten is concerned, that might be fine and it was only the double-bogey on 14 today that stops him being single figures going into tomorrow. He is another that is very much in-form and should he get flowing early on, is just the type to go on a birdie run. Similar comments apply to the very emotional Marcel Siem, who looks desperate to go well this weekend and is feeling every missed oppertunity, but in the end he may fail due to trying a bit too hard. Siem is a runner at a big price, as are the likes of Sergio Garcia and Danny Willett, all players that only see the flag. However, if there is wind and rain (and I think the event needs it) then tactics will come into it and the likes of Els and Bjorn sit high in the league table for the ability to play under pressure in difficult conditions. We are already in profit on the weekend and, providing Bjorn does nothing silly, will also win on the top-ten bet but I can't resist attempting another lay. Bjorn should be on the shoulders of the leaders at some point during the first few holes and, having proven he can follow up a low Saturday round time and time again, is worth putting in as low as 2.5. It isn't difficult to see a close event as they go down the stretch and whilst the likes of Levy, Baldwin and Stone drop away under the cosh, the proven winners should shine. The more difficult the circumstances, the more the Dane will like it and it is a cheap lay when we are sitting on a potential 58 point profit with a win. If we lay him 10 points at 2.5, we are 14 points in profit with a free bet worth 43 points with no downside. I have also included a second lay on Luiten in case he goes on a an early run but expect Bjorn to be a major runner as we reach the back-nine. Let's hope he can go and do the business.
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