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Shane Lowry 1 point each-way @ 28-1 (Corals) Shane Lowry 5 points Top-10 @ 9-5 (Corals) Eduardo Molinari 0.5 point each-way @ 70-1 (Corals) Eduardo Molinari 3 points Top-10 @ 19-5 (Corals) When the going gets tough etc etc, the weak go home for the weekend. If you are not on top of your game in tough conditions on a tough course, you are made to look very average indeed as a lot of the Ryder Cup stars have found this week. Any slip, such as the bizarre bunker shots by both Martin Kaymer and Justin Rose will cost you, whilst Paul Lawrie (unfortunately) discovered that like Luke Donald, even with course form Wentworth will tonk you if the game is out. To be frank, the lot at the top are far from trustworthy and prices of single figures about Frani Molinari, Lee Westwood and maiden George Coetzee make no appeal at all. The first two burgled a shot each at the final hole today, whilst Big George has yet to convince he can do the job when in front. Given that they may tread water, it is my belief that we can go down as far as maybe 1-under to find the winner - with two tricky par-5s to finish scores could easily range from 2-under to 3 over for just those, and in-running punters would be advised to get their trading boots out for the late afternoons. As for the winner, this could be a war of attrition. Whilst conditions are not expected to be quite as bad over the weekend, those making the cut seem in unison in declaring it a tough event so far and fitness, both mental and physical, will count for a lot. A case can be made for a good eight to ten players but both Lowry and Dodo have shown a prediliction for a fight and appeal most at the prices. Irishman Lowry has come forward in leaps and bounds over the past year. Having gained/shared his maiden under the bizarre 'amateur' rule, his progression hit new heights when shooting a superb weekend 67/66 to win in Portugal, just weeks after top finishes at the tough French and Scottish Opens. A spell on the PGA Tour reaped rewards beating Rory and Carl Petterson at the Matchplay, before a top-20 finish in windy Texas. He felt as though he threw away his match against Thomas Aiken in the recent Volvo matchplay, losing to a par on 18 before poor play at the extra hole, but his game improved throughout that event as it is doing here and he expressed satisfaction with both rounds thus far this week. One silly mistake this week has cost Lowry a double bogey, but that means that 28-1 is available rather than substantially shorter despite being just three off the pace and just a couple away from a podium finish. It is hoped that he takes inspiration from his weekend of 2011 when he shot 69/67 over the weekend, his stats are good thus far this week and should the putts drop, he is a major player. I certainly expect him to exploit softer greens with his attacking irons and be travelling forward through the field, and feel the top-10 price should be a tad shorter, making that the banker bet of the weekend. It's possible that backing Eduardo Molinari this week is a month too soon but as a huge fan, his play always catches the eye. Brilliant winner in Scotland (twice), his play when defeating Darren Clarke in 2010 is very reminiscent of the style he has shown this week and it is surely only a matter of time before new coach Sean Foley brings out the best in him - and that would be plenty good enough to challenge here. Having gone off the radar following wrist surgery, it was maybe a shot out of the blue to find himself finish runner-up in Malaysia. Dodo then commented that he was only 30% at ease with his new swing and expected too improve throughout the year and beyond. Costly the following week in the high winds of Morocco, the bizarre 81/66 opening salvo was typical of a man changing things throughout his game. Foley's pupils tend to improve with time and there have only been sporadic signs of quality, with just two rounds in ten of sub-70. Nevertheless, reading his twitter feed, Dodo has never lost his self-belief nor the view that everything will come right - his comments recently include 'I am a puppy compared to what Mr. Foley knows about it...but every session I learn so much more it's crazy!' and '9 hours of pure knowledge and hard work...brain is spinning, hands are bleeding but I am making some giant leaps forward'. That is nothing less than self-confidence and learning recenty that he is working with Phil Kenyon on his putting (previously almost top drawer) gives more credence to the belief that it is when, not if, he returns to the winners circle. By no means is Molinari's game at it's peak but I cannot resist the prices about a man showing length off the tee and with plenty of shots in his locker. Both selections this week have that form in Scotland (which I may look into further for a connection) but both seem overpriced due to an incorrectly lop-sided top of the shop.
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