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Paul Casey to beat Louis Oosthuizen - 5 points @ 5-6 (Bet365)

Although reluctant to take less than 10-11 about anyone in a season where the matchups have proven less than fruitful, it helps matters when one of the players screams 'oppose me'.

In the case of Louis Oosthuizen, it's almost impossible to make a case for him on current form. Plagued with hip, neck and back problems for a few months now, he did little in his outings at the Presidents Cup to make it look as if his best was imminent. Since withdrawing from the US Open, Oosty has only made one cut from three starts, did little at the Dunhill Links and was carried by team-mate Charl Scwartzel throughout the team event. Of course Louis could take-off at any moment but the evidence suggests that a healthy end to his season will be more of a priority.

Casey has also suffered injury problems over the last couple of seasons but looks fully fit judged on his form this year, a season that has got him back into the finale at the Race To Dubai after agonisingly missing out in 2012. Signs were good at the year end with three top-10s and a top-20 in his last four starts on the Euro Tour, and then again in the first few months of this year, but it took faithful backers until the end of June before they were rewarded with an excellent display through the wind and gales of the Irish Open. Whilst not horrendous since, results have been on the ordinary side for a player of his class although it is hard to crab a steady display of an average of mid-20 finishes. I am prepared to ignore last weeks missed-cut at Perth and concentrate on his form in China, which includes two wins and an excellent stat of 60% top-10s from twenty starts, including 6th here last year. That compares very well with his oppo's four top-10s from 14 starts - combine that with current form and 5-6 just sniffs a bit like value.