Abu Dhabi Golf Championship

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George Coetzee to beat Matteo Manassero - 6 points @ 5-6 (Sporting, others  may follow)

Of the eye-catchers last week, George Coetzee was probably the least memorable in terms of immediate winning form but there is no doubt that he will love the lengthening of the course and that already gives him an advantage over 72-hole rival Matteo Manassero.

At 7600 yards, the Abu Dhabi course is going to take some getting and with the narrowing of the fairways every metre will count and exploitation of the long Par-4s and the the three 580-yard plus Par-5s will be key here. It is a Coetzee paradise and providing he doesn't get ahead of himself when on the first page of the board, should comfortably have enough to beat his oppo.

Of course, Big George should have won by now and his failures in France and St Omer amongst others in his homeland have fustrated his backers but it remains that when conditions suit, he is a powerful betting weapon in the right sector, and he can only take heart from an excellent debut effort here when tied with Manassaro in 6th. Back then, the selection failed to take advantage of his length with average iron play resulting in too many scrambles, but his continued improvement led to a further four top-6 finishes at the latter end of the year and last weeks fast-finishing top-10 suggests all is well and this place will suit far better. He then went on to prove that no fluke with an excellent top-5 in Dubai so clearly this area feels comfortable to him.

Manassero is a reknowned talent and, of course, a multiple winner on Tour but this cannot be a track that comes easily to him. That 6th last year was the highlight of a UAE record that is average at best (no top-30s in five other starts) and whilst he beat Coetzee by a whisker in the Volvo Champions, that was a course where accuracy reigned. He'll win plenty but it will be a surprise if he can live with the 'top lot' here this week, who will be playing  9-irons where he has to hit 6 and 7. For those pointing to accuracy, it is suprising that on latest stats there is not a lot between them in GIR, whereas the South African has a ranking 150-odd places above in distance of the tee.

Case dismissed m'lud?