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Branden Grace - 1.5 points each-way @ 25-1 (General 1/5 1234)) Richie Ramsey - 0.5 points each-way @ 66-1 (General 1/5 1234)) Branden Grace - 3 points @ 13-10 Top-10 finish (Corals) Richie Ramsey - 2 point @ 3-1 Top-10 finish (Corals) Richie Ramsey - 0.5 points @ 140 (Betfair) Set lay Richie Ramsey - 5 points @ 10 (Betfair) A sad sight watching both Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods with the weekend off, but it proves that golf can still entertain without the top brass, Rory playing like a 10-handicapper and Tiger falling foul of one of golf's stringest rulings. I guess the main thing for in-running punters is that they won't be appearing under-the-odds and making the market for a few. Still, life moves on... Out in front, the still improving Justin Rose is playing quality golf around this toughened course and is striking his irons as well as ever. The lengthening of the course is irrelevent to him and he is continuing a run that has seen him notch up four top-tens from five recent starts. However, at 2-1, everything needs to be perfect and his putting isn't quite reliable enough to take such a price. Justin's best recent effort, a 2nd to Rory McIlroy in the DP, was from well off the pace and that is where I'd rather be backing him from, especially given he took 31 putts from 16 greens-in-reg today - can he play his irons as well and hole putts? Price is all, and at 2-1, he is easy to oppose. Nearest rivals Donaldson, Olesen and Fedez-Castano are 2 clear of fifth place and all must have claims. All played in the Volvo Champions last week and whilst Gonzo says it is welcoming to have the recent outing to 'warm up', it was the Welshman that impressed most around a course that shouldn't have suited that well. This week thus far, all have played well enough without spectacular results but the young Dane cannot keep missing fairways, whilst the other two make little appeal at single-figure odds. Other likely candidates Martin Kaymer (single figures despite looking off with his game) and Matteo Manassero (can't keep getting away with missed greens due to lack of length) are unappealing at the odds, so attention turns elsewhere. First up is Branden Grace, one of a handful to catch the eye in last weeks event. I'm not sure how a three-time winner on the Tour can be a longer price than the likes of compatriot and maiden George Coetzee and he is well worth backing to continue his improvement around this track. Ignore last years missed-cut when there was far more attention on him and instead look at the closing 6th in the DP event and last weeks 67/69/67 finish, where again he was under pressure, this time to defend at home. Naturally he will be more relaxed this week and having led all the way in the Johnnie Walker, he has form being in front from a way out and unlike some, will not buckle when in with a chance. Grace has enough form and qualification to think he should be five points shorter than the current 25-1. He also makes appeal at 13-10 for a top-10 finish.
One further to make the final few had to be Henrik Stenson, back in form after a couple of years off his game and with two runner-up finishes here. This weeks play has been top drawer and if he finds improvement with the flat stick he must contend - he just lost out to Grace in the 'who to back at 4-under?' stakes. Instead, one from just a shot behind the two above, and the only one fancied from the 3-unders and further. When winning the 2012 Crans-sur-Surre event, Richie Ramsey proved to be one of the best iron players of the season and it is no coincidence that he again topped that ranking a week later. This week thus far, the Scot has found 22/28 fairways and 28 greens-in-reg and is another that gives the impression he will tidy-play his way up the leaderboard. Another still open to improvement, he looks well overpriced at Betfairs current 140 but also at 80-1 on the fixed odds first 3) or 66-1 (first 4).
All in all, the event is in the hands of Justin Rose but there is that nagging doubt that he can pull away tomorrow and make it his. There will bea low score or two as they put the tees up and that may bring the field much closer together. If needed there will be another look tomorrow, but of the half-dozen that appeal, both Grace and Ramsey look a likely starting point.
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