Abu Dhabi Golf Championship

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3-6; -6.00pts  (system plays: 1-2-0)

Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated):

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Henrik Stenson +138 @ Boyle Sports [4pts]  LOST by 1
Jaidee finished 2012 with finishes of 10th-7th-6th-17th-3rd and then opened his 2013 campaign with a 3rd place finish last week. Together with four top-15 finishes in seven visits to Abu Dhabi, there is plenty of reason to expect a good week from the Thai golfer. What makes this matchup particularly relevant for tomorrow's round is the fact that these two have played in ten common events over the past year ... Stenson didn't shoot the lower 1st round score in any of them.

Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Danny Willett -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and BetVictor]  WON by 2
Not the same imbalance in this matchup, but Olesen hasn't missed a cut in his last nine starts and was the sole leader at the cut last year, finishing 8th. Willett did play well last week, but has finishes of mc-69th-mc in the last three years here, so a repeat performance looks rather unlikely.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to beat Jamie Donaldson +120 @ Boyle Sports  WON by 3
Simple reason for this play: opposing the (joint) first round leader. Donaldson has been the 1st round leader on the European Tour four times previously, the last time less than three months ago. From this four rd1 positions, he has finished the 2nd round 3, 3, 3, and 6 shots behind the leader. Fernandez-Castano led the field in greens in regulation today and hasn't missed a cut in 14 events. He certainly looks like a player to side with at the moment.

Anders Hansen to beat Thorbjorn Olesen +115 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
Playing in the more difficult afternoon conditions, it was a good effort by Hansen to shoot 71 and finish the day in 16th place. However, given that he has finished 15th, 8th, 18th and 14th in the last four years, he looks likely to continue his good form on this course. Playing in the easier morning conditions tomorrow should also help him in this matchup.

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Jamie Donaldson +120 @ William Hill [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 1
Jaidee was a loser in the 1st round even though he finished the day in the top-10. Against the leader, Donaldson, I'll back him to continue his recent good form and will gladly take these odds.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Willett tb Olesen +110 (L); Fernandez-Castano tb Willett +100 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Matteo Manassero to beat Jason Dufner +110 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 1
Dufner may rank #11 in the World Rankings, but Manassero has won three times on the European Tour and he is still a teenager. He came close to winning this last year, finishing 6th, and sits alongside Dufner on the leaderboard in 7th place, just four shots off the lead. With all the glitz of the Nike announcement at the start of the week and the subsequent anti-climax, it is worth remembering that McIlroy only won one European Tour event when he was a teenager, so Manassero deserves more of the limelight than he is currently getting. 

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Jamie Donaldson -110 @ Paddy Power and BetVictor [available generally]  LOST by 5
Donaldson lies in 2nd place, two shots off the lead, but I think Jaidee will be the stronger challenger to Justin Rose even though he is a shot further back. In the last four seasons, Donaldson has started the final round within five shots of the leader on 17 occasions, but has yet to convert any of those chances in wins. In fact, he has finished the final round further away from the lead than at the start of the day in 14 of those 17 occasions. Jaidee has been in very good form - the last time he finished behind Donaldson was over five months ago - and should win this final round matchup.

Richie Ramsay to beat David Howell -110 @  Stan James and Sportingbet [available generally]  LOST by 4
First in driving accuracy and second in greens in regulation, Ramsay has looked increasingly impressive this week and is another who could challenge for this title if Rose's level drops tomorrow. He is also good under 'contention pressure' as shown by a record of starting the final round of a European Tour in the top-5 on eight occasions and finishing that round still in the top-5 on seven of those eight occasions. Howler has certainly been playing better over the past couple of seasons, but it is still rare that he starts the final round in the top-5, so I'll side with the University of Stirling alumnus.

Paul Casey to beat Ernie Els -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
Els starts the day 12 shots off the lead and in 48th place, so motivation is clearly a consideration for tomorrow. He started the final round more than 10 shots off the pace on seven occasions last season and never broke 70 in the final round. In fact, only once did he finish the final day closer to the lead than he started it. Casey's motivation should not be a concern - he starts the final round inside the top-30 and as a two-time winner of this event, will certainly be looking to finish this event in style.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Edfors tb Kruger -111 (L)]