British Open

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3-1; +4.32pts  (system plays: 17-13-1)

Round 1 play (2pts):

Vijay Singh to beat Victor Dubuisson -110 @ Five Dimes  WON by 12
I'm even more bemused at this line than with Sunday's Micheel/Jones line. Singh's record in the Open at St Andrews reads: 12th (1990); 6th (1995); 11th (2000); 5th (2005), and he has played in the Dunhill Links Championship four times and finished no worse than 22nd each time. Either he is being priced up as a poor putter (as the greens are so large), but his previous record at St Andrews suggests that it is not such a factor, or he is being priced up as being unfit, but he has reported in interview that his back, which had given him so much trouble at the start of the year, has been pain-free for the last two months and that can be seen from his performances: 33rd, 12th, 40th, 13th and 9th in his last five PGA Tour starts. That he missed the cut at Loch Lomond by a shot should turn out to be a blessing as he had played in nine of the last ten weeks on the PGA Tour ... again proof that he is now injury-free. What of Dubuisson? He ended 2009 as the #1 ranked player on the R&A's World Amateur Rankings, but so poor has been his 2010 form that he has now dropped to 33rd in the Rankings. He has played in three European Tour events this year, missing the cut twice and finishing 56th on the other occasion and broke par in just one round. In terms of experience on the Old Course at St Andrews, he has played in the St Andrews Link Trophy in recent years, but has never done well. I would be extremely surprised if he made the cut.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Overton tb Lowry -111 (L); Choi tb Ogilvy +100 (L); Furyk tb Donald +100 (L); Furyk tb McDowell +111 (L); Fisher tb Poulter +100 (W); Watson T tb Ishikawa +115 (L); Leonard tb Davies +100 (L); Johnson Z tb Johnson D +100 (L); Cink tb Poulter +112 (W); Allenby tb Schwartzel -105 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Y.E. Yang -123 @ Extrabet  WON by 2
Quite a contrast in their rounds today: Yang had no bogeys and five birdies in his 67, missing just one green in regulation, while Donald had just one birdie and two bogeys in his 73. It wasn't that Donald played poorly - he missed just four greens in regulation all day despite playing in the windier afternoon conditions, he simply didn't have a good day on the greens - he ranked 147th of 156 in putting average. But I don't expect this to be replicated tomorrow. Yang has been in poor form, missing his last three cuts, and has missed the cut each time that he has played in this event, including 2005 at this venue, as well as in the one occasion that he played in the Dunhill Links Championship. So today was clearly an exception to the rule. For Donald, he has a good record in links golf with finishes of 3rd, 23rd and 7th in the Dunhill Links Championship hosted at this venue, was 3rd after the opening round at this venue in 2005 and was 5th last year in this event at Turnberry. Plus, he has been in great form recently with his record since The Masters reading: 3rd, 26th, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 47th, 11th; and he does have a very good 'bounceback' record: over the past 12 months, he has started the 2nd round outside the cut line just four times and on those occasions his 2nd round scores have been 69, 65 (he bounced back so well that he would hold the 3rd round lead in this event, the 2009 Dunhill Links Championship), 68 and 65 (he would finish 3rd in this event, the Celtic Manor Wales Open).

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Donald tb Hanson -120 (W); Harrington tb Ishikawa -145 (L); Perry tb Wilson -130 (T); Watney tb Wilson -110 (W); Woods tb McIlroy -165 (W); O'Hair tb Fisher -105 (W); Ikeda tb Ishikawa +125 (L); Overton tb Oosthuizen +120 (L); Immelman tb Daly -111 (W); Fernandez-Castano tb McGowan +100 (W)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Y.E. Yang to beat Ryo Ishikawa +109 @ Pinnacle [also available @ FiveDimes and Extrabet]  LOST by 1
With the winds back to a more normal speed today, I'll back Yang in this situation and at these odds. He didn't play too poorly yesterday, he just wasn't generally hitting his iron shots as close to the hole as Donald and he came unstuck at the 11th hole when he four-putted after seeing his first two putts return to his feet as he failed to manage the slope just before the hole (a common feature in yesterday's play). Otherwise, he has been solid, missing only five greens in regulation all week, ranking 4th in that category. Plus, he will be well-rested and has not had his swing disrupted by playing in the afternoon group, as Ishikawa did. Ishikawa coped extremely well in the afternoon conditions, but it was a mentally draining effort and he finished his round in near-darkness. And, for all his feats on the Japan Tour last year (four wins) and his 58 this year that enabled him to record his sole victory from well off the pace, he has not been playing particularly well on the Japan Tour this year (mc, 52, 15th, 52nd since that 58) and he has always failed to convert promising positions outside Japan. He has played in 13 strokeplay events outside Asia, missing the cut seven times and with a best finish of 32nd in the 2010 Northern Trust Open when he was 4th after the 2nd round, but failed to break par thereafter; his next best finish is 33rd in the U.S. Open, but he had been 2nd after the 2nd round and then shot 75-80; and then last week he was 5th after an opening 67, but then shot 77-72-79 to finish 56th. He is only 18 years old and has a huge media circus around him and that may well be the reasons why he has struggled in the latter rounds when outside Japan. After yesterday's gruelling round, he should find it difficult to convert this particular chance.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Singh tb Johnson D +108 (L)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Paul Casey +108 @ Pinnacle [also available @ FiveDimes, SkyBet, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 1
Casey and Oosthuizen clearly stood out as the players of the day; no-one else looked as though they might hold the lead at the end of the day with Casey hitting every green in regulation today. However, Casey failed to record a single birdie on the back nine and so he fell to four shots back of Oosthuizen. By contrast, Kaymer is third, but seven shots behind the South African. However, tomorrow will be a very different day - it is the final round of a Major championship. In that respect, I expect Casey to struggle tomorrow. Not only does he have the weight of home expectation upon him, but he has tended not to do very well when in final round contention for a Major anyway. He has started the final round of a Major in the top-10 on three previous occasions: in the 2004 Masters, he shot 75 to drop from 4th to 6th; in the 2007 U.S. Open he shot 76 to drop from 3rd to 10th; and in the 2008 Masters he shot 79 to drop from 4th to 11th. These final round Major failings are in marked contrast to Kaymer: - he has started the final round in a Major in the top-10 on two occasions: in the 2009 PGA Championship he shot 73 to rise from 8th to 6th; and in the 2010 U.S. Open he shot 72 to rise from 10th to 8th. At a more general level, Kaymer averages a full shot lower in final round scoring average in 2010 and in their 11 common events over the last 12 months, Casey has yet to shoot the lower final round.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Garrido tb Jeong -109 (W); Oosthuizen tb Canizares +125 (W); Stenson tb Casey +101 (W); Oosthuizen tb Casey +240 (W); Kuchar tb Ishikawa +105 (W); Kuchar tb Fowler -115 (L); Kuchar tb Quiros -105 (L); Singh tb Yang -118 (W); Allenby tb Scott -111 (W); Rock tb Jeong -120 (W)]